Best Actor at Golden Globes Comes with High Stakes

As the first major precursor to the Oscar, and with twelve Best Actor slots between the Comedy/Musical and Drama categories, missing a nomination here may signal the end of that actor’s Oscar campaign.

George Clooney - Jay Kelly

Clooney looks to have a strong chance at making it in at the globes with 88% of award expert users predicting him to make the cut. However, he’s currently ranked at #8 in the Oscar predictions. His success in this category largely hinges on whether Jay Kelly emerges as a strong awards film. Prognosticators lost confidence since it premiered at Venice to surprisingly mixed reactions. However, it’s been regaining some buzz since, and as Netflix’s slate clears up with House of Dynamite being declared “dead on arrival” by many, Jay Kelly competes with only Train Dreams to be Netflix’s second Best Picture entry (behind Frankenstein) . If he misses Globe, it would certainly make him and his film appear weak.

Lee Byung-Hun - No Other Choice

Park Chan-Wook’s leading man in the South Korean dark comedy thriller, No Other Choice, has a decent shot to land a nomination due to the Globes’ embrace of international films. Lee is predicted by 71% of Award Expert users in the Musical or Comedy category. Like George Clooney with his film, Lee’s chances largely hinge on whether No Other Choice can break out as a whole. The film sits just outside the current Best Picture Oscar predictions. Voters may recall his role in Squid Game, which could boost his pedigree.

Joel Edgerton - Train Dreams

Edgerton’s odds for a Globe nomination are increasing rapidly. Over the last month, during which Train Dreams released on Netflix, his odds rose from 21% to 67%. The meditative and gorgeously photographed period drama is slowly winning over movie fans and is positioned just outside the current Best Picture predictions. Given Edgerton is competing in the less-competitive Drama category, this nomination should be a layup.

Jeremy Allen White - Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Jeremy Allen White’s Oscar chances have taken one of the biggest hits so far this season. Since his film’s release, White’s nomination prospects fell 48%, down from 80% to 32%. The film suffered from a poor showing at the box office and weak reviews – 59 on Metacritic, 60% on rotten tomatoes and 3.2 on letterboxd. Despite this, White’s Globe chances remain more assured here than elsewhere as 91% of users continue to predict a nomination in the Drama category. Musical biopic performances are hard to overlook for awards voters. If he misses the nomination, it will show just how far Springsteen has fallen.

Dwayne Johnson - The Smashing Machine

Following its surprising success at the Venice Film Festival where Benny Safdie took home the best director prize, The Smashing Machine became a significant box office flop taking home 20 million worldwide against a 50 million budget. Upon release, Johnson’s chances at an Oscar nomination took a hit, falling 22% since the start of October. However, users are still optimistic he’ll land a Globe nomination, where he’s fallen only 7%. Even with its weak box office showing, praise for the actor’s performance has sustained through this rough patch, noting his break from blockbuster filmmaking and significant transformation. This might be the only major nomination he receives this season.

Daniel Day-Lewis - Anemone

Following his brief return from retirement, Daniel Day-Lewis stars as a tortured father in his son's feature debut, Anemone. Day-Lewis is predicted by 51% of Award Expert users. His comeback narrative here will no doubt intrigue voters, but the film is a flop with critics. A globe nomination will reaffirm his standing in this race, but a miss will no doubt mean he is out of this year’s Oscars.

Other contenders

It may be tough to imagine any of these actors missing one of the twelve slots, but plenty of contenders outside the current top six are rising, including Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) , Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein), and Russell Crowe (Nuremberg) on the Drama side, and Brendan Fraser (Rental Family), Hugh Jackman (Song Sung Blue), and Will Arnett (Is This Thing On?) in Musical or Comedy.