Can 'Sentimental Value' Land Both Supporting Actress Nominations?

After its world premiere at the Cannes Film Festival, where it took home the Grand Prix, buzz has only grown for Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value. Trier's previous film, The Worst Person in the World, received nominations for Best Original Screenplay and Best International Feature Film at the 2022 Academy Awards.

Sentimental Value has steadily solidified its status as a top-tier contender this awards season, currently ranking at #4 in Award Expert users' Best Picture predictions. However, it’s the Best Supporting Actress race that offers the most intrigue, with the film fielding performances from both Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas that have drawn critical acclaim and awards buzz.

Precedent for dual-supporting campaigns

As evidenced by Poor Things, The Fablemans, and Belfast, tight competition can cause one contender to cancel out the other.

However, there is historical precedent for two supporting nominees from the same film, as seen with The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and The Irishman .

Who else is in competition?

At this stage, the only "locks" in the Best Supporting Actress Oscar race appear to be last year's runner-up, Ariana Grande, and the standout supporting female performance in this year's Best Picture frontrunner, Teyana Taylor – with the actresses from Sentimental Value close behind.

Elle Fanning is ranked at #3 with Award Expert users, with 86% expecting a nomination. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas follows at #4 with 73% of users predicting.

Other names in contention include: Amy Madigan for her two-faced turn in the horror-thriller, Weapons, Gwyneth Paltrow and Odessa A'Zion for Marty Supreme, and Regina Hall for One Battle After Another.

In last year’s Best Supporting Actress lineup, every nominee came from a Best Picture contender, suggesting that being tied to a Best Picture nominee can make or break a nomination — an advantage for the women from Sentimental Value.

Their chances at Golden Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA

Golden Globes

The first stop on the path to Oscar is the Golden Globe nominations, which take place in early December. Voted on by international journalists, they've increasingly embraced international films in recent years as their membership has nearly tripled. Fernanda Torres' win in the Lead Actress (Drama) category last year underscores the organization's growing recognition of global talent, which could give Norwegian actress Lilleaas an early advantage. Unlike the Oscars, the Globes nominate six performances, which should leave enough room for both actresses to secure nominations.

Critics Choice Awards

Conversely, the votership at the Critics' Choice Awards comprises critics and entertainment journalists from Canada and the United States, which can lead to a preference for North American actors, like Fanning. However, if the film generates enough buzz — as Emilia Pérez did last year when Karla Sofía Gascón landed a Best Actress nomination — the actors could perform well regardless of domestic bias. Therefore, Lilleaas's chances hinge on Sentimental Value maintaining its strength in key categories like Picture and Director — an outcome that, if Award Expert forecasts are any indication, is likely.

Screen Actors Guild

As an American organization, SAG-AFTRA generally doesn't embrace international films and performances as much as other awards bodies, as seen with the omission of Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory and Sandra Hüller for Anatomy of a Fall, both of whom received Oscar nominations. Therefore, the SAG Awards are the most likely major precursor to snub Lilleeas entirely. This is reflected in the Award Expert predictions, where Fanning is the only one predicted to receive a SAG nomination. That said, if the film earns a nomination in the Best Ensemble category, a show of strength, a nod for Lilleaas could follow. And, considering that Sentimental Value is about actors, it may play especially well with SAG-AFTRA members.

BAFTA

This year, the BAFTA nominations will be announced after the Oscar nominations are revealed. The organization's close ties to the British film industry often translate into strong recognition for European films – good news for Sentimental Value. On Award Expert, Fanning and Lilleaas are neck-and-neck, with 94% of users predicting nominations. In fact, both are considered win-competitive, with 94% of Award Expert users predicting Fanning to prevail and 94% backing Lilleaas.

Which actress has the stronger narrative?

There is growing online chatter that Fanning is overdue for her first Oscar nomination after being the only major cast member not nominated for A Complete Unknown, despite winning the National Board of Review Award for Best Supporting Actress. Nevertheless, one could argue that at twenty-seven, Emmy-nominee Fanning is hardly “overdue”, with plenty of opportunity for Oscar recognition still ahead.

On the other hand, there is skepticism about Lilleaas’ chances due to her being a new face to general audiences. Breakout performances can struggle to gain recognition from the Academy, but that didn’t stop Yura Borisov from earning every key nomination for his North American debut in Anora during last year’s Best Supporting Actor race. Should Sentimental Value maintain its post-release momentum into early 2026, Lilleaas is likely to secure precursors that will pave the way for an Oscar nomination.

Final verdict

The fact that Fanning and Lilleaas are currently so high in this year’s Best Supporting Actress race indicates that they’re solid contenders. They're anchored to a film that's expected to receive nominations across the board, which helps Lilleaas in particular transcend international bias. But if Amy Madigan remains solidly in the race and Marty Supreme produces a formidable contender, this double nomination might prove a challenging to achieve.