When Wicked: Part One premiered last year, few predicted that Ariana Grande would emerge as one of the year’s most formidable contenders. Now with Part Two, Grande’s awards discourse has been completely flipped. 90% of Award Expert users predict a nomination with 50% predicting she will walk away with the statuette. And for good reason. We found a historical where Grande's win would match a near-perfect historical pattern.
Since Nashville in 1976, when a musical is nominated for Best Picture and Best Supporting Actress, it has won Best Supporting Actress. The only exception since is last year when Grande lost to another actress from a Best Picture-nominated musical: Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez.
In 2002, Chicago dominated the race, propelling Catherine Zeta-Jones to BAFTA, SAG, and Oscar wins, while Queen Latifah earned nominations alongside her. A decade later, Anne Hathaway turned just 30 minutes of screen time into a season-long sweep for her role as Fantine in Les Misérables . Turning to more recent races, in 2021 Ariana DeBose won the award for the same West Side Story role Rita Moreno won for nearly 60 years prior, and just last year, Zoe Saldaña triumphed for Emilia Pérez.
Across nearly half a century, this is remarkably consistent.
Why the stat holds
Musicals, almost by design, contain the DNA for a strong Best Supporting Actress campaign. Having solo songs that deliver unforgettable moments can often sway voters. Unlike dramatic or comedic supporting performances, which frequently hinge on subtler moments, the spotlight in musicals is hugely beneficial. Such memorable songs as Anne Hathaway’s “I Dreamed a Dream,” in Les Misérables, can be key for a winning actress, and Ariana Grande’s “Girl in the Bubble,” a new song written exclusively for Wicked: For Good, might be just what Grande needs.
Like many other Best Picture-nominated musicals, the Wicked movies are major contenders across the board, scoring not just acting nominations, but recognition across the board in crafts. As of today, users have Wicked: For Good, predicted for 11 nominations, the third most of any film this year.
Ariana Grande's Competition
For now, Grande has a decisive lead in win predictions, but that isn’t to say that there’s no competition. According to our users, her competition consists of Teyana Taylor, Elle Fanning, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, and Amy Madigan. However, only Taylor and Fanning have a significant portion of users predicting their wins 34% and 5% respectively. Taylor might be the most formidable competition given she's in the Best Picture frontrunner, One Battle After Another.
Even without looking for data from past musical contenders, it's clear to see why many are confident about Grande’s odds. Although Teyana Taylor gives a standout performance in One Battle After Another , she's only in the first twenty-or-so minutes of the film. Meanwhile, it's unclear with Sentimental Value actress would have the better shot. Some speculate that Amy Madigan could give Grande a run for her money by sweeping the critics group awards, but her film, Weapons, , isn't likely to land a Best Picture nomination, which would narrow her chances.
Grande should benefit from the clear support that the Academy showed to Wicked: Part One last year with 10 nominations. She’s arguably a co-lead alongside Cynthia Erivo, especially as Glinda’s role in the second act of the original stage play is more emotionally complex.
Of course, no statistic can perfectly account for the whims of voters, but between the numbers and the narrative, Ariana Grande may already be halfway to Oscar gold.
Predictions from Award Expert users
Best Supporting Actress
2026 Academy Awards
4,762 usersNov 27, 4:29 PM
1
Ariana Grande
Wicked: For Good
WIN:50%
8%
change over 30 days
NOM:90%
1
Ariana Grande
Wicked: For Good
WIN:50%
8%
change over 30 days
NOM:90%
2
Teyana Taylor
One Battle After Another
WIN:34%
13%
change over 30 days
NOM:96%
3%
change over 30 days
2
Teyana Taylor
One Battle After Another
WIN:34%
13%
change over 30 days
NOM:96%
3%
change over 30 days
3
Elle Fanning
Sentimental Value
WIN:5%
5%
change over 30 days
NOM:85%
3%
change over 30 days
3
Elle Fanning
Sentimental Value
WIN:5%
5%
change over 30 days
NOM:85%
3%
change over 30 days
4
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
Sentimental Value
WIN:3%
1%
change over 30 days
NOM:74%
7%
change over 30 days
4
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
Sentimental Value
WIN:3%
1%
change over 30 days
NOM:74%
7%
change over 30 days
5
Amy Madigan
Weapons
WIN:5%
2%
change over 30 days
NOM:53%
11%
change over 30 days
5
Amy Madigan
Weapons
WIN:5%
2%
change over 30 days
NOM:53%
11%
change over 30 days
What users are saying
Scott Kernen
@scottjkernen
Here comes the Wicked brigade.
I’m staying with this ranking and if she starts winning I will switch (I will say I only see Madigan or Grande winning at this point)
Supporting Actress
2026 Academy Awards
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K
@arianagrandeoscarwinner
If you are still doubting Ariana Grande’s chances of winning the gold trophy this year you are either a hater or delusional sorry. She is front-runner and it will be hard to beat her but good luck to everyone!!! :) <3
charlie
@charlievard
I think the top 3 are locked in and any of those 3 have a fair chance Ariana probs taking it though??
Supporting Actress
2026 Academy Awards
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George Louth
@clipping3
A co-lead always have an advantage over a 10 min role, and Grande very nearly won it last year. She's the clear frontrunner to win, right now anyway
Supporting Actress
2026 Academy Awards
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Andrew Meschke
@currenthyperfixation
Trailer just confirmed what I said before: she will more than deserve this win
Supporting Actress
2026 Academy Awards
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Shadow
@blackshadow
It feels so wrong to no longer have her on the #1 spot. I wanted to be ride or die with this woman, but either she or Timothée Chalamet had to make room for an One Battle After Another win and I love Timmy too much.
Convince me to put her …
Supporting Actress
2026 Academy Awards
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Faris Haleem
@siraf_08
I’ve had her at one since May but it still feels so wrong. She’ll probably win tho
Supporting Actress
2026 Academy Awards
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Aayush
@aayushdhurka
People doubting this are also just doubting the movie, which is fair, but I’m definitely not for now
Supporting Actress
2026 Academy Awards
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YorkSA
@yorksa81
Simplemente no veo a nadie quien va a poder desafiarla y derrotarla. Los Arianators estarán muy contentos esta temporada.
Supporting Actress
2026 Academy Awards
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Kyle Tamburrino
@cheshirekyle
She felt like a solid second place last year and the line up this year feels pretty weak. Again, very confident in her nomination and feel safe with her as the front runner for now.
Supporting Actress
2026 Academy Awards
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Shadow
@blackshadow
It'll be hard to win for her performance as Glinda after losing last season, but I'm ride or die with this woman.
Supporting Actress
2026 Academy Awards
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cam
@cammattox
Doubting her nomination is crazy- especially with seemingly weaker competition???
Supporting Actress
2026 Academy Awards
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KayBee
@neko180507
Not entirely sure if shes going to win but it's very clear that if Saldana was not there, she would have won easily. And usually actresses who potray in musicals always end up winning the Oscar (Debose, Hudson, Zeta-Jones). I feel like the …
Supporting Actress
2026 Academy Awards
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Matthew Downs
@mattydraps
me 🤝 arinators
please let my family go
Supporting Actress
2026 Academy Awards
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Berger
@theberger
The Wicked performance at the Oscar’s last year were her audition for another nom imo
Supporting Actress
2026 Academy Awards
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Gabriela Rivas
@awardshowsaremylatestobssesion
Ok hear me out
1. There is no clear frontrunner
2. They may end up waiting for the second part to come out to fully give the movie it’s flowers. Should she win it will say “Wicked for good” on the envelope, but she will be rewarded for h …
Supporting Actress
2026 Academy Awards
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osama abbas
@samoscar
I saw the trailer and by the looks of it she is gonna be even more performative this time with more drama scenes as well as the comedy she brought the first part. I think the academy will want to give it to one of the two especially after l …
Supporting Actress
2026 Academy Awards
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alex
@alexdawl
(All justifications for Wicked predictions are under the assumption that the second half of the two-parter at the very least levels up to the first in terms of general reception and cultural significance)
What separates Wicked from the usu …
Supporting Actress
2026 Academy Awards
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Ben
@artic_paws10
Zoe Saldaña sadly took up the win last year so at least she has a bigger chance of winning it this year, because the academy could see giving her the win as an award for her performance in both films
