Jacob Elordi Rises in Best Supporting Actor Predictions

Ahead of Frankenstein ’s Venice Film Festival premiere, few were expecting Jacob Elordi to become a major awards contender. But following the film’s glowing reception — including a second-place finish for TIFF’s People’s Choice Award — the buzz around his performance has now led to the likes of Next Best Picture founder Matt Neglia to predict his nomination for Supporting Actor, swapping out Jeremy Strong (Deliver Me From Nowhere) .

Since the film’s premiere, Elordi’s stock in Awards Expert has skyrocketed from 1% to now 37% of users predicting him for a nomination, despite the fact that horror and specifically monster performances have historically faced an uphill battle with the Academy. While makeup-heavy and transformative roles often earn admiration, they rarely make it past the craft categories into above-the-line ones. To understand just how significant Elordi’s nomination could be, let’s take a look back at how similar films and performances have fared in awards history.

Frankenstein's history with the Academy Awards

Adaptations of Mary Shelley’s novel have made a few appearances at the Academy Awards throughout the years. 1935’s Bride of Frankenstein received one nomination for Sound Recording, while 1994’s Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein, starring Robert De Niro as The Creature, nabbed a Makeup nomination. The only above-the-line nomination for an adaptation went to Mel Brooks and Gene Wilder, who co-wrote the screenplay to Young Frankenstein (1974), which was also nominated for Best Sound. And of course, we can’t forget Animated Feature nominee Frankenweenie (2012). A Frankenstein adaptation has yet to win an Oscar so far, though del Toro’s passion project will be looking to change that this season.

How have Movie Monster Performances fared with Awards?

As far as movie monster performances are concerned, some have had relative awards success. Frederic March won an Academy Award for his dual role as Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde back in 1932 (he also won Best Actor at the first-ever Venice Film Festival earlier that year). For her terrifying performance in The Exorcist (1974), then-15-year-old Linda Blair picked up a Golden Globe win for Best Supporting Actress, and was a strong contender to win the Academy Award later that season, but ultimately lost out to another child actress: Tatum O’Neal for Paper Moon. More recently, Willem Dafoe received a Supporting Actor nomination for playing Max Schreck in Shadow of the Vampire (2000). The horror film is based on the urban legend that Schreck –– the actor who played the title role in 1922’s Nosferatu –– was an actual vampire. Dafoe picked up Globe and SAG nominations for the role, as well as taking home an Indie Spirit Award.

As for recent examples, we could look to an unconventional movie monster performance by Demi Moore in The Substance last year, who forms part of “Monstro Elisasue”, alongside Margaret Qualley, toward the end of the film. Moore famously missed out on Best Actress to Mikey Madison for Anora, and that bonkers ending was widely speculated to be one of the reasons why she didn’t cross the finish line. Bill Skarsgård’s performance as Count Orlok in last year’s Nosferatu got some awards buzz, but ultimately failed to receive any major nominations. Similarly, a lot was said about Doug Jones’ performance in del Toro’s The Shape of Water back in 2017. Despite him playing a major role in a Best Picture-winning film, though, the awards voters’ aversion to monster performances made his campaign a non-starter.

Elordi's Best Precedent: John Hurt as "The Elephant Man"

Perhaps the best comparison for Elordi’s path this season is John Hurt’s performance in The Elephant Man (1980). While neither a horror film nor a monster performance, both roles explore the pain of being othered because of one’s physical appearance –– brought to life through transformative makeup and prosthetics –– and both center on characters defined by their empathy underneath. Lynch’s drama also heavily borrows from the gothic horror aesthetic that the James Whale classic Frankenstein (1931) helped establish. Hurt’s performance won him the BAFTA for Best Actor and earned nominations at both the Golden Globes and the Academy Awards, ultimately losing to Robert De Niro for Raging Bull. . It’s a precedent Elordi and his team will surely hope to replicate.

Elordi's Competition in Supporting Actor

It won’t be easy for Elordi, who is currently ranked at #6 in our community predictions for Best Supporting Actor. It’s hard to imagine Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value), and Paul Mescal (Hamnet) not being locks at this point in time, so that would leave two spots up for grabs. Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) is currently ranked at #5 , but as noted in this article about Netflix's 2026 slate, Baumbach’s film doesn’t look as strong a prospect this season as Frankenstein does, which could give Elordi an advantage. Similarly, early reception hasn’t been stellar for the new Springsteen biopic, meaning Jeremy Strong's current standing at #8 could be on shaky ground. Unlike Sandler and Elordi, though, Strong is a previous nominee, which can only help him.

Then there’s Delroy Lindo (Sinners) and Benicio del Toro (OBAA), whose films will likely be anchored to Best Picture nominations. Lindo is surely due some goodwill by the Academy after his surprising snub for Da 5 Bloods in 2021, but considering Sinners has a big ensemble, it’s hard to make the case for Lindo being the ultimate standout of that film. Benicio Del Toro might have a good case for one of the remaining slots given he’s in the current Best Picture frontrunner (and also stars in Wes Anderson's The Phoenician Scheme, which came out earlier this year). The fact that his co-star Penn is the current favourite may affect his chances, but we’ve seen three films so far this decade get double nominations in this category already; it’s far from uncommon. Going in Elordi’s favour, though, is that he dominates the second half of the film, which often helps for actors vying for a Supporting nomination.

What might be holding Elordi back the most is the Academy’s bias against makeup-heavy horror performances. It’s been over twenty years since Shadow of the Vampire, about fifty years since The Exorcist, and almost a century since March took home his Best Actor trophy for Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. It's rare for a portrayal of The Creature to break into the conversation, but if reviews are to be believed, audiences and critics are truly behind Elordi’s performance. He’s an up-and-coming talent whose first Oscar nomination seems inevitable; why couldn’t this be the year?