Why Inga Ibsdotter Lileaas Can Win Supporting Actress

The category that remains the most uncertain is Best Supporting Actress. Before the premiere of Wicked: For Good, most defaulted to Ariana Grande. She is stellar in the first film, completely embodying the character of Glinda. Ariana was almost certainly the runner-up for Best Supporting Actress for most of the season leading up to the Academy Awards. It’s the perfect role, and the type of performance that the Academy would be eager to award. But after it premiered to mixed reviews, there’s good reason to doubt the film’s status as a Best Picture contender, leaving the race open. That’s where Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, a mostly unknown actress, can successfully make a run for this award for her incredible turn in Sentimental Value.

Award Expert users are currently split between Ariana Grande and Tayona Taylor for the win. Inga Ibsdotter Lileaas and Amy Madigan are gaining their shares of win-predictions, but they're behind the top two. Perhaps it’s my own bubble of critics, but I was under the impression that Lileaas and Madigan were the odds-on favorites among critics, and that would reflect somewhat in the broader consensus of their odds later this award season.

Dissecting the early primary Phase 1 award shows (Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards). The first show of this season this year will be CCA, and it will be a tight race between Amy Madigan for Weapons and Ariana Grande for Wicked: For Good. Amy Madigan probably has the edge. Wicked underperforming during the CCA nominations this year primarily is supporting this assessment. Grande’s counterpart, Erivo was unable to garner a nomination for herself at the awards, supporting my belief that an uphill battle may be in store for Wicked: For Good wins.

The Globes are another story entirely. I achieved the highest score on winner predictions last year on Awards Expert for the Golden Globes, and my strategy was simply to treat it like any other international critics group. The makeup of The Globes has changed so drastically since the “no black members” scandal from the populist Globes of old. Wicked: Part One, which only won for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement, does not give me any hope for an Ariana win at the Globes without a massive push from Universal. Teyana Taylor and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas are able to pull off the win at the Globes. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas feels like the raw, dramatic performance the new Globes would gravitate towards if Teyana’s screen time proves to be a barrier to her wins.

We also have the Industry Award shows, SAG, and BAFTA. It’s no secret that SAG is the true way to win the Oscar for Supporting Actress. In the expanded era, only one supporting actress winner has achieved an Oscar win without also winning a SAG award. There is a giant asterisk to that stat because Regina King was not nominated for the SAG Award for If Beale Street Could Talk in 2018, nor was the SAG Winner Emily Blunt for A Quiet Place nominated for the Oscar. I think the only valid argument for being all-in on Ariana Grande for the lock to win supporting actress at the Oscars is that she is a lock to win supporting actress at the SAG Awards. Can anyone reasonably compete to win the supporting actress over Ariana at the SAGs? Maybe Amy Madigan, if she gets nominated, or Teyana Taylor if OBAA is truly unstoppable.

Casting doubt on the SAG-Oscar correlation, most of the winners were sweepers (winning all four major precursors). The actresses who weren’t sweepers won at least one of the other four precursors, the only exception being Jamie Lee Curtis, who was in the Best Picture Winner that year. If we assume the Golden Globe or CCA aren’t giving Grande the trophy, perhaps a SAG win isn’t as meaningful.

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas’s best shot at a win is BAFTA Sentimental Value; despite losing some momentum since Cannes, it is still positioned for a massive nominations haul at BAFTA. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas delivers one of the strongest performances in the category and a central performance in the ensemble. Wicked also performed worse at the BAFTAs last year than at the Academy Awards. Wicked: For Good, having a weaker critical reception, could hold it back here.

The best comparison may be the 2013 Supporting Actress Split. Jennifer Lawrence winning Globe + BAFTA and Lupita Nyong’o winning Critics’ Choice + SAG. Given Sentimental Value will be stronger than Wicked: For Good in the end, Lilleaas will have the edge.

What’s probably standing the most in Inga’s way will be her lack of name recognition, which may not even get her through the door. Given her central role, though, and her positioning in a film that should receive many Oscar nominations, I would be surprised if that's what held her back.