With the decade now half over, the 2020s have seen a clear decrease in lead acting performances that have swept across all five major award ceremonies (Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, SAG, Oscars). So far, Will Smith (King Richard) is the only Oscar winner this decade—across both Lead Actor and Lead Actress—to have managed a clean sweep. This stands in stark contrast to the 2010s, in which five out of the ten Best Actor winners, and six of the Best Actress winners saw clean sweeps.
This trend can be largely attributed to increasingly fractured awards bodies, as well as a greater variation in the types of films competing for major awards. With the divergence in taste between BAFTA and SAG becoming ever more apparent, this begs the question of whether we can reasonably expect a “sweeper” this year in either lead acting race.
Will Jessie Buckley perform a clean sweep?
Jessie Buckley is widely touted as the clearest frontrunner across any of the acting races for her role in Hamnet, with a whopping 88% of users on Award Expert currently predicting her to win the Oscar for Best Actress. Her performance is being hailed as undeniable for an Oscar win, and many are indeed predicting her to steamroll the season.
Her first major Awards season checkpoint would be the Golden Globes in which she would compete in the Best Actress – Drama category. Given the lack of competition, it would be very surprising for her to lose here. The Critics’ Choice awards should follow suit, since they very rarely surprise when there is a clear early frontrunner. BAFTA has a preference for serious, prestige dramas, as well as the performances that helm them. And while BAFTA’s bias towards British and Irish actors is often overstated, it is still a factor that will work in Buckley’s favor. Buckley will almost certainly triumph at BAFTA. The biggest question mark for Buckley is SAG. Hamnet, despite near-universal acclaim, is relatively slow-paced and emotionally wrenching – qualities that may conflict with SAG’s populist preferences. It’s also worth noting that director Chloe Zhao’s previous Oscar winner, Nomadland, went home empty handed at SAG despite dominating the rest of that awards season. But if Buckley were to miss out at SAG, who would take her place?
Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) is in second place for Best Actress on Award Expert. However, non-english language films tend to fare poorly at SAG. If anyone were to surprise, it almost certainly would not be Reinsve. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) is ranked third. Helming the sequel to the immensely popular musical, which over-performed with last year’s SAG nominations, Erivo could conceivably surprise against Buckley at SAG, but this would likely not be enough to take away Buckley’s frontrunner status for the Oscar.
Will Timothée Chalamet sweep the season?
Timothée Chalamet is the presumed Best Actor frontrunner for Marty Supreme, with 66% of users predicting him to win. His biggest competition may be Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another). The main factor in DiCaprio’s favor is that his film is largely seen as the frontrunner for Best Picture at the Oscars. Since four of the last five Best Picture winners have been awarded for their lead performances (Nomadland, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Oppenheimer, Anora) this would undoubtedly boost DiCaprio’s chances. However, while DiCaprio’s performance in OBAA has been universally acclaimed, he is more of an “ensemble lead” than a true lead. This may work against him, considering that the Best Actor category in particular favors performances that are essentially carrying the entire film, and many feel that DiCaprio is slightly overshadowed by other showier performances in OBAA (particularly Sean Penn’s). By contrast, Chalamet dominates nearly every frame of Marty Supreme. His Marty Mouser is gregarious and larger-than-life. It's difficult to take your eyes off him.
SAG will be an interesting race, seeing as Chalamet won Best Actor there last year for A Complete Unknown. This could give Chalamet a hard time winning at SAG again, since SAG has never awarded the same actor two years in a row for film. But given SAG’s first ceremony was in 1995, this might not come as a surprise, as The Oscars also have not given two consecutive Best Actor awards to the same performer in this period. And given the widespread appeal of Marty Supreme, which may be more in line with SAG’s taste, this might not prove a challenge. While Chalamet’s age may be a factor against him in the long run, BAFTA hasn’t been averse to awarding young actors in recent years (Austin Butler, Eddie Redmayne), and Chalamet is also a previous two-time nominee. There's little reason to doubt a BAFTA win.
It is also worth noting that most of the recent Best Actor “sweepers” have been actors that had been nominated one or more times without ever winning (Will Smith, Joaquin Phoenix, Gary Oldman, Leonardo DiCaprio), and were perceived as overdue. While Chalamet is noticeably younger than the aforementioned actors, his previous two nominations would still help reduce the age bias against him. Furthermore, Chalamet has appeared in many other Best Picture nominees this past decade for which he wasn’t recognized by the Academy (Lady Bird, Little Women, Dune, Don’t Look Up), which could further bolster his “overdue” narrative.
The Verdict
Buckley is especially unlikely to lose her frontrunner status this season, though SAG may be the biggest obstacle in her path. Chalamet’s previous awards history, as well as the populist appeal of Mary Supreme, , could make him hard to topple, though his age might give way for someone like DiCaprio to give him a run for his money.