Will Jessie Buckley Sweep this Season?

After dominating the fall festival circuit with a stunning world premiere at Telluride and a People’s Choice Award victory at Toronto, Hamnet has cemented its status as a formidable contender this awards season, currently ranking third on Award Expert’s Best Picture predictions. Major categories of contention include Best Director for Oscar winner Chloé Zhao, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Adapted Screenplay.

Among these potential nominations, the one most likely to translate into a win is Best Actress for Jesse Buckley, with 96% of Award Expert users predicting a nomination and 88% predicting a win -- a huge lead. With a frontrunner established at such an early stage, speculation naturally turns to the possibility of a clean sweep across the season.

Buckley's Competition

At this stage, there appear to be only two other “locks” in the Best Actress category, Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value and Cynthia Erivo for Wicked: For Good.

Reinsve’s work, brilliant as it is, arguably blends into the ensemble of Sentimental Value, where she shares the screen with Stellan Skarsgaard, Elle Fanning, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas. It's a subtle performance that may have difficulty edging out Buckleys' powerhouse as a grieving mother. Additionally, this would be her first nomination, whereas Buckley was nominated in 2022 for Best Supporting Actress for The Lost Daughter.

Having received a nomination for the same role last year, Cynthia Erivo is at an advantage as awards bodies may reserve recognition for the final installment of the two-part Wicked, making this year an opportunity to reward her work across both films.

As additional reviews for Wicked: For Good roll in, the consensus is shaping up as solid but less enthusiastic than for the first film. Even so, critics remain consistent in singling out Grande and Erivo as the standout elements.

Erivo’s strength as a Best Actress Contender is reflected on Award Expert, with 76% of users predicting a second nomination for her turn as Elphaba Thropp.

Who will the precursors award?

The Critics' Choice Awards are the first major stop on the awards circuit. Wicked: For Good may be met with open arms as last year John M. Chu received an unexpected win for Best Director. If passion persists and the second installment secures a similarly stellar haul, landing nominations in key categories like Picture and Director, Erivo might be considered the dark horse. However, Hamnet is expected to do nicely itself, with Award Expert users predicting 11 nominations. For Good is predicted for a whopping 15, but perhaps this will temper as the consensus solidifies that it's lesser of the two parts.

Fortunately for both actresses, the Golden Globes split the lead categories by genre into Drama and Comedy/Musical. On Award Expert, both actresses are frontrunners in their respective fields, with 95% predicting a win for Buckley in the Lead Actress Drama category and 65% predicting a win for Erivo in the Lead Actress Comedy/Musical category. If both convert their Globe frontrunner status into wins, they'll be competing on equal footing — and we'll have a real race on our hands.

Next in line are the Actor Awards (formerly known as the SAG Awards), which, similar to the Critics' Choice, demonstrated their enthusiasm for Wicked by giving Jonathan Bailey a surprising Supporting Actor nod for the first installment. Last year's results indicated that SAG-AFTRA thrives on compelling narratives (as evidenced by Demi Moore's win over Mickey Madison) and often favors performers from films they strongly support (as with Chalamet's victory over Adrian Brody, whose films had one and four nominations respectively). Given that neither Buckley nor Erivo is a veteran with a strong comeback narrative, this year's outcome may hinge on which film secures more overall nominations.

This year, the BAFTA ceremony takes place after the Oscars. However, the organization's close ties to the British film industry often translate into strong recognition for British titles — good news for Buckley. Hamnet is therefore likely to perform exceptionally well, potentially leading the field in nominations and picking up wins in major categories like Picture and Director, with a Buckley victory very much in reach.

The verdict

In recent years, BAFTA has been the strongest predictor of the Best Actress category.  Ultimately, Jessie Buckley likely takes the prize for two reasons: she has the bulk of her screen time in her film — unlike Erivo, who shares the spotlight with Grande — and Hamnet is the stronger, more broadly acclaimed contender.

Similarly to Madison's victory in the Best Actress category last year, which likely reflected both her centrality to Anora and the film's overall strength. If the Academy follows that pattern again, Buckley may well emerge victorious.