It may seem premature to speculate about a film’s awards chances in April (the Academy Award nominations drop in January of next year), but in the case of “Sinners”, I’m all but certain this is scoring a Best Picture nomination despite its release date.
Films release pre-September have to meet a different set of criteria to sustain momentum through awards season than those which open smack in the middle of the chatter. I’ve distilled three major factors that determine such a film’s path to awards success, all of which “Sinners” has achieved in spades.
I’m not going to pretend these are the only factors that matter. Many films get in without all three (one could argue Emilia Perez is 0/3). But the point is, when you do score all three, you’re looking pretty swell.
Here are examples of early-year films which unequivocally met each criteria and received Best Picture attention. Notice the variety in genre:
- “Dune: Part 2”, though underperforming, still got in
- “Get Out”
- “Black Panther” (another Ryan Coogler)
- “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
- “Grand Budapest Hotel” (Wes Anderson’s highest grossing film)
- “Top Gun: Maverick”
- “Barbie”
Conversely, here are some early-release films which had buzz but were not nominated. I’m noting here why these films actually did not excel in each of the criteria:
- “Challengers” landed a meager 7.0 on IMDb (divided audiences somewhat)
- “Hereditary” received a D+ Cinemascore (I have to admit this one feels close to a match, though it’s clear why the subject matter kept some at a distance)
- “Air” was good-not-great on all of these fronts
- “Sing Sing” clearly suffered with reach (my heart still breaks that it didn’t get the audience it deserved)
Let’s break down why “Sinners” is clearly in the company of the former group.
Critical Acclaim
Being a critic favorite helps immensely with awards buzz. It’s no secret that most Best Picture nominated films have high critic scores. And the ones that don’t make up for it with an enthusiastic audience response.
This thing holds a 98% Rotten Tomatoes. That’s stellar, but the real kicker is the average rating — 8.8/10. For reference, no Best Picture-nominated film last year can boast the same or greater score (The Brutalist holds 8.7, Anora 8.5). Even the year prior, Oppenheimer sits at 8.7. It’s likely no other film this year will top this specific stat.
The same can’t quite be said for the Metacritic score, which holds at a still-great 84. Metacritic generally pulls from the “trades” like Hollywood Reporter and Variety. This demographic overlaps with the “Top Critics” on Rotten Tomatoes, where the average rating is 8.3/10. Notably, blockbusters tend to fare worse with this group, and you’ll often find Metacritic’s highest-rated films are low-budget indies. So taken on its own terms, this is still quite a feat.
Audience Consensus
I’m sure we can think of films critics fawned over while audiences left scratching their heads. This disparity can be a red flag for reviews translating to awards success.
IMDb has the film at an 8.2 with 55k votes. Ranking above 8.0 is rare, and even more so as the number of votes increases. Few films this year will top this. IMDb is generally indicative of audience consensus, if you can cut through the trolls and review-bombs.
Letterboxd has become an excellent indicator of what the middle ground is between audiences and critics. Film enthusiasts reign. At a 4.2/5, “Sinners” has fully won over yet another demographic, and one I consider to be increasingly important in signaling passion.
Box Office
Reviews alone don’t tell the full story. Box office bombs can struggle to recover despite critical acclaim. It’s especially true for films not released in the thick of awards season. But when you’re a box office hit and widely acclaimed, that’s a golden ticket.
“Sinners” defied expectations by cracking 48 million in its opening weekend. It holds the top spot for highest-grossing original film this decade (since Jordan Peele’s “Us” ($71 million) in 2019). If that wasn’t impressive enough, the film dropped a minuscule 6% in its second weekend, solidifying what even aggregate websites can’t tell us — the word of mouth is phenomenal. People are seeing it twice, taking their friends, spreading the gospel. The box office performance itself has generated effusive headlines which shower the film in strong buzz and goodwill.
The Verdict
Ultimately, I can’t think of a film that has achieved all three of these metrics and not received awards attention. It’s difficult to fathom “Sinners” missing this big.
As of right now, I believe that not only does “Sinners” receive an easy Best Picture nomination, it has the potential to be the most nominated film on Oscar morning. I even believe it has the stuff to become a Best Picture winner, but let’s save that discussion for when we see what else 2025 has to offer.