Award Expert

2026 Independent Spirit Awards Predictions: Best Supporting Performance

Aggregated predictions from 499 users

Updated: Nov 8, 4:30 AM
Stellan Skarsgård
1

Stellan Skarsgård

Sentimental Value

WIN:72%
NOM:86%
Naomi Ackie
2

Naomi Ackie

Sorry, Baby

WIN:7%
NOM:83%
Andrew Scott
3

Andrew Scott

Blue Moon

WIN:3%
NOM:83%
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
4

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas

Sentimental Value

WIN:3%
NOM:81%
Elle Fanning
5

Elle Fanning

Sentimental Value

WIN:1%
NOM:75%
Conan O'Brien
6

Conan O'Brien

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

WIN:0%
NOM:64%
Jennifer Lopez
7

Jennifer Lopez

Kiss of the Spider Woman

WIN:1%
NOM:62%
Dakota Johnson
8

Dakota Johnson

Splitsville

WIN:2%
NOM:59%
James Sweeney
9

James Sweeney

Twinless

WIN:0%
NOM:52%
Robert Pattinson
10

Robert Pattinson

Die My Love

WIN:0%
NOM:49%
William H. Macy
11

William H. Macy

Train Dreams

WIN:3%
NOM:39%
Mark Hamill
12

Mark Hamill

The Life of Chuck

WIN:2%
NOM:32%
Alexander Skarsgård
13

Alexander Skarsgård

Pillion

WIN:0%
NOM:28%
Paul Mescal
14

Paul Mescal

Hamnet

WIN:2%
NOM:20%
Felicity Jones
15

Felicity Jones

Train Dreams

WIN:0%
NOM:21%
Nina Hoss
16

Nina Hoss

Hedda

WIN:0%
NOM:18%
Kirsten Dunst
17

Kirsten Dunst

Roofman

WIN:0%
NOM:14%
Emily Blunt
18

Emily Blunt

The Smashing Machine

WIN:0%
NOM:6%
Indya Moore
19

Indya Moore

Father Mother Sister Brother

WIN:0%
NOM:6%
Margaret Qualley
20

Margaret Qualley

Blue Moon

WIN:0%
NOM:5%
Russell Tovey
21

Russell Tovey

Plainclothes

WIN:0%
NOM:5%
Zoë Winters
22

Zoë Winters

Materialists

WIN:0%
NOM:5%
Kayo Martin
23

Kayo Martin

The Plague

WIN:0%
NOM:4%
Dylan O'Brien
24

Dylan O'Brien

Twinless

WIN:0%
NOM:3%
Lewis Pullman
25

Lewis Pullman

The Testament of Ann Lee

WIN:0%
NOM:2%
Tim Key
26

Tim Key

The Ballad of Wallis Island

WIN:0%
NOM:2%
Thomasin McKenzie
27

Thomasin McKenzie

The Testament of Ann Lee

WIN:0%
NOM:2%
Sissy Spacek
28

Sissy Spacek

Die My Love

WIN:0%
NOM:2%
Son Ye-jin
29

Son Ye-jin

No Other Choice

WIN:0%
NOM:2%
Youn Yuh-jung
30

Youn Yuh-jung

The Wedding Banquet

WIN:0%
NOM:2%
Ben Foster
31

Ben Foster

Christy

WIN:0%
NOM:2%
Da'Vine Joy Randolph
32

Da'Vine Joy Randolph

Eternity

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Zoey Deutch
33

Zoey Deutch

Nouvelle Vague

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Chris Evans
34

Chris Evans

Materialists

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Akira Emoto
35

Akira Emoto

Rental Family

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Alicia Vikander
36

Alicia Vikander

The Assessment

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Diego Luna
37

Diego Luna

Kiss of the Spider Woman

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
A$AP Rocky
38

A$AP Rocky

Highest 2 Lowest

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Aidan Delbis
39

Aidan Delbis

Bugonia

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Archie Madekwe
40

Archie Madekwe

Lurker

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Sheryl Lee Ralph
41

Sheryl Lee Ralph

Ricky

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
John Leguizamo
42

John Leguizamo

Bob Trevino Likes It

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Lily Gladstone
43

Lily Gladstone

The Wedding Banquet

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Deirdre O'Connell
44

Deirdre O'Connell

Eddington

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Rebecca Hall
45

Rebecca Hall

Peter Hujar's Day

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Tânia Maria
46

Tânia Maria

The Secret Agent

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
A$AP Rocky
47

A$AP Rocky

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Christopher Abbott
48

Christopher Abbott

The Testament of Ann Lee

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Saja Kilani
49

Saja Kilani

The Voice of Hind Rajab

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Adam Sandler
50

Adam Sandler

Jay Kelly

WIN:0%
NOM:0%