Early Oscar Prediction: How “Sinners” Defies Release Date Challenges to Secure Awards Consideration at the 2025 Oscars
While April seems too early to discuss Oscar nominations (which won’t be announced until January next year), “Sinners” has already established itself as a virtually guaranteed Best Picture nominee despite its early release date.
The Three Critical Factors for Early-Release Oscar Contenders
Films released before September face unique challenges in maintaining momentum throughout awards season. After analyzing successful early releases, I’ve identified three crucial factors that determine awards success—all of which “Sinners” has achieved remarkably.
These aren’t the only relevant factors (one could argue “Emilia Perez” achieved none yet still succeeded). However, when a film excels in all three areas, its Oscar prospects become exceptionally strong.
Here are examples of early-year releases that definitively met each criterion and received Best Picture nominations across various genres:
Successful Early-Release Best Picture Nominees: A Historical Analysis
- “Dune: Part 2” (despite underperforming)
- “Get Out”
- “Black Panther” (another Ryan Coogler film)
- “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
- “Grand Budapest Hotel” (Wes Anderson’s highest-grossing film)
- “Top Gun: Maverick”
- “Barbie”
Early Releases That Missed Oscar Recognition: What Went Wrong
Conversely, these early-release films generated buzz but missed nominations, failing to excel in the critical criteria:
- “Challengers” only achieved a 7.0 on IMDb (indicating somewhat divided audiences)
- “Hereditary” received a D+ Cinemascore (despite strong qualities, its challenging subject matter likely created distance)
- “Air” performed adequately but not exceptionally across all metrics
- “Sing Sing” struggled with audience reach (despite deserving wider recognition)
Let’s break down why “Sinners” is clearly in the company of the former group.
Factor #1: “Sinners” Achieves Unprecedented Critical Acclaim
Being a critic favorite helps immensely with awards buzz. It’s no secret that most Best Picture nominated films have high critic scores. And the ones that don’t make up for it with an enthusiastic audience response.
This thing holds a 98% Rotten Tomatoes. That’s stellar, but the real kicker is the average rating — 8.8/10. For reference, no Best Picture-nominated film last year can boast the same or greater score (The Brutalist holds 8.7, Anora 8.5). Even the year prior, Oppenheimer sits at 8.7. It’s likely no other film this year will top this specific stat.
The same can’t quite be said for the Metacritic score, which holds at a still-great 84. Metacritic generally pulls from the “trades” like Hollywood Reporter and Variety. This demographic overlaps with the “Top Critics” on Rotten Tomatoes, where the average rating is 8.3/10. Notably, blockbusters tend to fare worse with this group, and you’ll often find Metacritic’s highest-rated films are low-budget indies. So taken on its own terms, this is still quite a feat.
Factor #2: “Sinners” Earns Exceptional Audience Response
I’m sure we can think of films critics fawned over while audiences left scratching their heads. This disparity can be a red flag for reviews translating to awards success.
IMDb has the film at an 8.2 with 55k votes. Ranking above 8.0 is rare, and even more so as the number of votes increases. Few films this year will top this. IMDb is generally indicative of audience consensus, if you can cut through the trolls and review-bombs.
Letterboxd has become an excellent indicator of what the middle ground is between audiences and critics. Film enthusiasts reign. At a 4.2/5, “Sinners” has fully won over yet another demographic, and one I consider to be increasingly important in signaling passion.
Factor #3: “Sinners” Delivers Blockbuster Box Office Performance
Reviews alone don’t tell the full story. Box office bombs can struggle to recover despite critical acclaim. It’s especially true for films not released in the thick of awards season. But when you’re a box office hit and widely acclaimed, that’s a golden ticket.
“Sinners” defied expectations by cracking 48 million in its opening weekend. It holds the top spot for highest-grossing original film this decade (since Jordan Peele’s “Us” ($71 million) in 2019). If that wasn’t impressive enough, the film dropped a minuscule 6% in its second weekend, solidifying what even aggregate websites can’t tell us — the word of mouth is phenomenal. People are seeing it twice, taking their friends, spreading the gospel. The box office performance itself has generated effusive headlines which shower the film in strong buzz and goodwill.
Final Oscar Prediction: “Sinners” Is Poised for Awards Dominance
Ultimately, I can’t think of a film that has achieved all three of these metrics and not received awards attention. It’s difficult to fathom “Sinners” missing this big.
As of right now, I believe that not only does “Sinners” receive an easy Best Picture nomination, it has the potential to be the most nominated film on Oscar morning. I even believe it has the stuff to become a Best Picture winner, but let’s save that discussion for when we see what else 2025 has to offer.