Award Expert

2026 Oscars Predictions: Best Picture

'One Battle After Another' Skyrockets to Lead Best Picture Race After Premiere

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Predicted nominees

Updated: Dec 26, 12:29 PM
One Battle After Another
1

One Battle After Another

Warner Bros.

WIN:88%
5%
change over 30 days
NOM:99%
Sinners
2

Sinners

Warner Bros.

WIN:5%
NOM:99%
Hamnet
3

Hamnet

Focus Features

WIN:3%
4%
change over 30 days
NOM:97%
2%
change over 30 days
Sentimental Value
4

Sentimental Value

Neon

WIN:1%
NOM:96%
3%
change over 30 days
Marty Supreme
5

Marty Supreme

A24

WIN:1%
NOM:95%
2%
change over 30 days
Frankenstein
6

Frankenstein

Netflix

WIN:0%
NOM:93%
5%
change over 30 days
It Was Just an Accident
7

It Was Just an Accident

Neon

WIN:0%
NOM:90%
7%
change over 30 days
Bugonia
8

Bugonia

Focus Features

WIN:0%
NOM:66%
16%
change over 30 days
Train Dreams
9

Train Dreams

Netflix

WIN:0%
NOM:62%
48%
change over 30 days
The Secret Agent
10

The Secret Agent

Neon

WIN:0%
NOM:56%
47%
change over 30 days
*Aggregated predictions from 6,810 users

Percentage Predicting over time

One Battle After Another
Sinners
Hamnet
Sentimental Value
Marty Supreme
Frankenstein
It Was Just an Accident
Bugonia
Train Dreams
The Secret Agent
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Nov 27Nov 30Dec 3Dec 6Dec 9Dec 13Dec 16Dec 19Dec 22Dec 2699%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 26
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 25
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 24
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 23
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 22
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 21
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 20
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 19
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 18
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 17
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 16
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 15
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 14
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 13
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 12
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 11
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 10
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 9
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 8
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 7
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 6
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 5
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 4
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 3
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 2
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Dec 1
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Nov 30
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Nov 29
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Nov 28
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Nov 27
99%
Sinners
99% predicting on Dec 26
99%
Sinners
99% predicting on Dec 25
99%
Sinners
99% predicting on Dec 24
99%
Sinners
99% predicting on Dec 23
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Dec 22
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Dec 21
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Dec 20
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Dec 19
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Dec 18
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Dec 17
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Dec 16
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Dec 15
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Dec 14
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Dec 13
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Dec 12
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Dec 11
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Dec 10
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Dec 9
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Dec 8
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Dec 7
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Dec 6
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Dec 5
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Dec 4
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Dec 3
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Dec 2
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Dec 1
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Nov 30
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Nov 29
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Nov 28
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Nov 27
97%
Hamnet
97% predicting on Dec 26
97%
Hamnet
97% predicting on Dec 25
97%
Hamnet
97% predicting on Dec 24
96%
Hamnet
96% predicting on Dec 23
96%
Hamnet
96% predicting on Dec 22
96%
Hamnet
96% predicting on Dec 21
96%
Hamnet
96% predicting on Dec 20
96%
Hamnet
96% predicting on Dec 19
96%
Hamnet
96% predicting on Dec 18
96%
Hamnet
96% predicting on Dec 17
96%
Hamnet
96% predicting on Dec 16
96%
Hamnet
96% predicting on Dec 15
96%
Hamnet
96% predicting on Dec 14
96%
Hamnet
96% predicting on Dec 13
96%
Hamnet
96% predicting on Dec 12
96%
Hamnet
96% predicting on Dec 11
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Dec 10
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Dec 9
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Dec 8
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Dec 7
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Dec 6
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Dec 5
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Dec 4
94%
Hamnet
94% predicting on Dec 3
94%
Hamnet
94% predicting on Dec 2
94%
Hamnet
94% predicting on Dec 1
94%
Hamnet
94% predicting on Nov 30
94%
Hamnet
94% predicting on Nov 29
94%
Hamnet
94% predicting on Nov 28
94%
Hamnet
94% predicting on Nov 27
96%
Sentimental Value
96% predicting on Dec 26
96%
Sentimental Value
96% predicting on Dec 25
96%
Sentimental Value
96% predicting on Dec 24
96%
Sentimental Value
96% predicting on Dec 23
96%
Sentimental Value
96% predicting on Dec 22
96%
Sentimental Value
96% predicting on Dec 21
96%
Sentimental Value
96% predicting on Dec 20
96%
Sentimental Value
96% predicting on Dec 19
96%
Sentimental Value
96% predicting on Dec 18
96%
Sentimental Value
96% predicting on Dec 17
96%
Sentimental Value
96% predicting on Dec 16
96%
Sentimental Value
96% predicting on Dec 15
96%
Sentimental Value
96% predicting on Dec 14
96%
Sentimental Value
96% predicting on Dec 13
96%
Sentimental Value
96% predicting on Dec 12
95%
Sentimental Value
95% predicting on Dec 11
95%
Sentimental Value
95% predicting on Dec 10
95%
Sentimental Value
95% predicting on Dec 9
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Dec 8
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Dec 7
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Dec 6
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Dec 5
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Dec 4
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Dec 3
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Dec 2
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Dec 1
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Nov 30
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Nov 29
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Nov 28
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Nov 27
95%
Marty Supreme
95% predicting on Dec 26
95%
Marty Supreme
95% predicting on Dec 25
95%
Marty Supreme
95% predicting on Dec 24
95%
Marty Supreme
95% predicting on Dec 23
95%
Marty Supreme
95% predicting on Dec 22
95%
Marty Supreme
95% predicting on Dec 21
95%
Marty Supreme
95% predicting on Dec 20
94%
Marty Supreme
94% predicting on Dec 19
94%
Marty Supreme
94% predicting on Dec 18
94%
Marty Supreme
94% predicting on Dec 17
94%
Marty Supreme
94% predicting on Dec 16
94%
Marty Supreme
94% predicting on Dec 15
94%
Marty Supreme
94% predicting on Dec 14
94%
Marty Supreme
94% predicting on Dec 13
94%
Marty Supreme
94% predicting on Dec 12
94%
Marty Supreme
94% predicting on Dec 11
94%
Marty Supreme
94% predicting on Dec 10
93%
Marty Supreme
93% predicting on Dec 9
93%
Marty Supreme
93% predicting on Dec 8
93%
Marty Supreme
93% predicting on Dec 7
93%
Marty Supreme
93% predicting on Dec 6
93%
Marty Supreme
93% predicting on Dec 5
93%
Marty Supreme
93% predicting on Dec 4
93%
Marty Supreme
93% predicting on Dec 3
93%
Marty Supreme
93% predicting on Dec 2
93%
Marty Supreme
93% predicting on Dec 1
93%
Marty Supreme
93% predicting on Nov 30
93%
Marty Supreme
93% predicting on Nov 29
93%
Marty Supreme
93% predicting on Nov 28
93%
Marty Supreme
93% predicting on Nov 27
93%
Frankenstein
93% predicting on Dec 26
93%
Frankenstein
93% predicting on Dec 25
93%
Frankenstein
93% predicting on Dec 24
93%
Frankenstein
93% predicting on Dec 23
93%
Frankenstein
93% predicting on Dec 22
93%
Frankenstein
93% predicting on Dec 21
93%
Frankenstein
93% predicting on Dec 20
92%
Frankenstein
92% predicting on Dec 19
92%
Frankenstein
92% predicting on Dec 18
92%
Frankenstein
92% predicting on Dec 17
92%
Frankenstein
92% predicting on Dec 16
92%
Frankenstein
92% predicting on Dec 15
92%
Frankenstein
92% predicting on Dec 14
92%
Frankenstein
92% predicting on Dec 13
92%
Frankenstein
92% predicting on Dec 12
92%
Frankenstein
92% predicting on Dec 11
91%
Frankenstein
91% predicting on Dec 10
91%
Frankenstein
91% predicting on Dec 9
90%
Frankenstein
90% predicting on Dec 8
90%
Frankenstein
90% predicting on Dec 7
89%
Frankenstein
89% predicting on Dec 6
89%
Frankenstein
89% predicting on Dec 5
89%
Frankenstein
89% predicting on Dec 4
89%
Frankenstein
89% predicting on Dec 3
88%
Frankenstein
88% predicting on Dec 2
88%
Frankenstein
88% predicting on Dec 1
88%
Frankenstein
88% predicting on Nov 30
88%
Frankenstein
88% predicting on Nov 29
88%
Frankenstein
88% predicting on Nov 28
88%
Frankenstein
88% predicting on Nov 27
91%
It Was Just an Accident
91% predicting on Dec 26
91%
It Was Just an Accident
91% predicting on Dec 25
90%
It Was Just an Accident
90% predicting on Dec 24
90%
It Was Just an Accident
90% predicting on Dec 23
90%
It Was Just an Accident
90% predicting on Dec 22
90%
It Was Just an Accident
90% predicting on Dec 21
90%
It Was Just an Accident
90% predicting on Dec 20
90%
It Was Just an Accident
90% predicting on Dec 19
90%
It Was Just an Accident
90% predicting on Dec 18
89%
It Was Just an Accident
89% predicting on Dec 17
89%
It Was Just an Accident
89% predicting on Dec 16
89%
It Was Just an Accident
89% predicting on Dec 15
89%
It Was Just an Accident
89% predicting on Dec 14
89%
It Was Just an Accident
89% predicting on Dec 13
89%
It Was Just an Accident
89% predicting on Dec 12
88%
It Was Just an Accident
88% predicting on Dec 11
88%
It Was Just an Accident
88% predicting on Dec 10
87%
It Was Just an Accident
87% predicting on Dec 9
86%
It Was Just an Accident
86% predicting on Dec 8
86%
It Was Just an Accident
86% predicting on Dec 7
85%
It Was Just an Accident
85% predicting on Dec 6
85%
It Was Just an Accident
85% predicting on Dec 5
85%
It Was Just an Accident
85% predicting on Dec 4
84%
It Was Just an Accident
84% predicting on Dec 3
84%
It Was Just an Accident
84% predicting on Dec 2
83%
It Was Just an Accident
83% predicting on Dec 1
83%
It Was Just an Accident
83% predicting on Nov 30
83%
It Was Just an Accident
83% predicting on Nov 29
83%
It Was Just an Accident
83% predicting on Nov 28
84%
It Was Just an Accident
84% predicting on Nov 27
66%
Bugonia
66% predicting on Dec 26
66%
Bugonia
66% predicting on Dec 25
66%
Bugonia
66% predicting on Dec 24
65%
Bugonia
65% predicting on Dec 23
65%
Bugonia
65% predicting on Dec 22
65%
Bugonia
65% predicting on Dec 21
65%
Bugonia
65% predicting on Dec 20
65%
Bugonia
65% predicting on Dec 19
64%
Bugonia
64% predicting on Dec 18
61%
Bugonia
61% predicting on Dec 17
60%
Bugonia
60% predicting on Dec 16
60%
Bugonia
60% predicting on Dec 15
59%
Bugonia
59% predicting on Dec 14
59%
Bugonia
59% predicting on Dec 13
58%
Bugonia
58% predicting on Dec 12
57%
Bugonia
57% predicting on Dec 11
56%
Bugonia
56% predicting on Dec 10
54%
Bugonia
54% predicting on Dec 9
46%
Bugonia
46% predicting on Dec 8
46%
Bugonia
46% predicting on Dec 7
45%
Bugonia
45% predicting on Dec 6
44%
Bugonia
44% predicting on Dec 5
45%
Bugonia
45% predicting on Dec 4
46%
Bugonia
46% predicting on Dec 3
47%
Bugonia
47% predicting on Dec 2
47%
Bugonia
47% predicting on Dec 1
48%
Bugonia
48% predicting on Nov 30
48%
Bugonia
48% predicting on Nov 29
49%
Bugonia
49% predicting on Nov 28
50%
Bugonia
50% predicting on Nov 27
62%
Train Dreams
62% predicting on Dec 26
61%
Train Dreams
61% predicting on Dec 25
60%
Train Dreams
60% predicting on Dec 24
60%
Train Dreams
60% predicting on Dec 23
59%
Train Dreams
59% predicting on Dec 22
58%
Train Dreams
58% predicting on Dec 21
58%
Train Dreams
58% predicting on Dec 20
56%
Train Dreams
56% predicting on Dec 19
55%
Train Dreams
55% predicting on Dec 18
51%
Train Dreams
51% predicting on Dec 17
50%
Train Dreams
50% predicting on Dec 16
49%
Train Dreams
49% predicting on Dec 15
48%
Train Dreams
48% predicting on Dec 14
47%
Train Dreams
47% predicting on Dec 13
45%
Train Dreams
45% predicting on Dec 12
44%
Train Dreams
44% predicting on Dec 11
42%
Train Dreams
42% predicting on Dec 10
40%
Train Dreams
40% predicting on Dec 9
38%
Train Dreams
38% predicting on Dec 8
36%
Train Dreams
36% predicting on Dec 7
30%
Train Dreams
30% predicting on Dec 6
23%
Train Dreams
23% predicting on Dec 5
21%
Train Dreams
21% predicting on Dec 4
18%
Train Dreams
18% predicting on Dec 3
17%
Train Dreams
17% predicting on Dec 2
16%
Train Dreams
16% predicting on Dec 1
16%
Train Dreams
16% predicting on Nov 30
15%
Train Dreams
15% predicting on Nov 29
14%
Train Dreams
14% predicting on Nov 28
13%
Train Dreams
13% predicting on Nov 27
56%
The Secret Agent
56% predicting on Dec 26
56%
The Secret Agent
56% predicting on Dec 25
55%
The Secret Agent
55% predicting on Dec 24
54%
The Secret Agent
54% predicting on Dec 23
53%
The Secret Agent
53% predicting on Dec 22
52%
The Secret Agent
52% predicting on Dec 21
52%
The Secret Agent
52% predicting on Dec 20
50%
The Secret Agent
50% predicting on Dec 19
49%
The Secret Agent
49% predicting on Dec 18
43%
The Secret Agent
43% predicting on Dec 17
42%
The Secret Agent
42% predicting on Dec 16
42%
The Secret Agent
42% predicting on Dec 15
41%
The Secret Agent
41% predicting on Dec 14
40%
The Secret Agent
40% predicting on Dec 13
39%
The Secret Agent
39% predicting on Dec 12
37%
The Secret Agent
37% predicting on Dec 11
35%
The Secret Agent
35% predicting on Dec 10
29%
The Secret Agent
29% predicting on Dec 9
12%
The Secret Agent
12% predicting on Dec 8
12%
The Secret Agent
12% predicting on Dec 7
12%
The Secret Agent
12% predicting on Dec 6
12%
The Secret Agent
12% predicting on Dec 5
12%
The Secret Agent
12% predicting on Dec 4
11%
The Secret Agent
11% predicting on Dec 3
10%
The Secret Agent
10% predicting on Dec 2
9%
The Secret Agent
9% predicting on Dec 1
9%
The Secret Agent
9% predicting on Nov 30
9%
The Secret Agent
9% predicting on Nov 29
9%
The Secret Agent
9% predicting on Nov 28
9%
The Secret Agent
9% predicting on Nov 27
99%99%97%96%95%93%91%66%62%56%

Just one week into its theatrical release, 'One Battle After Another' has dramatically reshaped the awards landscape. Some are even declaring that the race is over, and for good reason.

This will likely be the single best reviewed film of 2025, boasting exceptional Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes scores. But the press aren't the only ones catching a fever. Paul Thomas Anderson's modern American epic is thrilling, funny, action-packed, and made with the multiplex audience in mind. The pacing is breathless and never lets up throughout the 2hr 45min runtime.

"It's time to Paul Thomas Anderson an Oscar" chatter is already deafening. Celebrating an auteur director has helped Best Picture winners like Anora and Oppenheimer in recent years.

Set against the backdrop of a revolutionary group battling their government as immigrant populations face mass detention, 'One Battle After Another' arrives at a politically charged moment. This gives voters a broader reason to award the film as ICE raids sweep cities like Los Angeles.

Ryan Coogler's 'Sinners' and Festival Favorites Maintain Strong Positions

Many users have shifted their number-one prediction from 'Sinners' to 'One Battle After Another'. But confidence in Ryan Coogler's genre-defying vampire film remains remarkably high for a nomination. This highly original, genre-bending, musical period drama took both audiences and the box office by storm when it premiered in April. Passion from critics and moviegoers hungry for thought-provoking, original cinema gives it staying power.

Chloe Zhao's 'Hamnet' emerged as the biggest success from the fall festival circuit, winning the People's Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festial, indicating strong support from audiences. The film explores the love and loss that inspired Shakespeare's 'Hamlet'. Holding a stellar 90 on Metacritic, 'Hamnet' proves it's not just an audience hit, but loved across the board for its portrait of grief and healing. Bring the tissues.

'Sentimental Value' continues to hold strong as it completes its festival run. Predicted to be an awards darling since its premiere at the Cannes Film Festival, this is the most likely international film to land a nomination next year. Excitement for writer/director Joachim Trier's filmmaking and support for the outstanding ensemble cast make this one hard to bet against.

Unseen Contenders 'Marty Supreme' and 'Wicked: For Good' Maintain Buzz

Josh Safdie's 'Marty Supreme', starring Timothée Chalamet, is holding impressively strong at 89% prediction despite no one having seen it yet. As A24's flagship awards contender this season, the trailer promises a highly entertaining, funny, sports-centered thrill ride that could appeal to both audiences and critics. The studio's track record and Chalamet's star power keep expectations elevated.

'Wicked: For Good' remains a safe bet following the stellar ten nominations its predecessor received during last year's awards season. Since both films were shot simultaneously, prognosticators see little reason to expect dramatically different results. The built-in fanbase and director Jon M. Chu's steady hand make it a reliable prediction for nomination consideration.

Neon Emerges as Major Player with Multiple Contenders

Following its Palme d'Or victory, 'It Was Just An Accident' has only gained momentum. Some prognosticators expressed skepticism that this simmering Iranian drama could be an awards play. But Neon is determined to make the world know director Jafar Panahi's name, a filmmaker who has made over a dozen films and been imprisoned for his craft by the Iranian government. The film's presence at TIFF and Telluride has increased confidence among users.

Just when it appeared Neon had its hands full with 'Sentimental Value' and 'It Was Just An Accident', 'No Other Choice' has lept into the race with an excellent reception at Venice and TIFF, where it won the International People's Choice Award. Park Chan-Wook is yet another filmmaker overdue for international recognition, and it might arrive with his latest dark comedy which examines the brutality of the job market in our capitalist landscape.

It might seem too good to be true that Neon could land three international films in Best Picture, and it would be astounding if they pulled it off. Let's have our fingers crossed.

Festival Reception Shifts Predictions for 'Bugonia' and 'Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere'

'Bugonia' and 'Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere', both widely considered solid contenders before the fall festivals, have seen user confidence waver. 'Hamnet' effectively took the spot as Focus Features' main awards horse as 'Bugonia' received mostly positive but somewhat mixed reactions.

'Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere' premiered to good-not-great reactions from press. Though confidence remains strong in the film's highly anticipated performances from Jeremy Allen White as Bruce Springsteen and Jeremy Strong as his manager. The acting potential may be enough to keep the film in consideration.

Next in line

Updated: Dec 26, 12:29 PM
No Other Choice
11

No Other Choice

Neon

WIN:0%
NOM:36%
4%
change over 30 days
Wicked: For Good
12

Wicked: For Good

Universal

WIN:0%
NOM:34%
41%
change over 30 days
Avatar: Fire and Ash
13

Avatar: Fire and Ash

20th Century Studios

WIN:0%
NOM:18%
46%
change over 30 days
Jay Kelly
14

Jay Kelly

Netflix

WIN:0%
NOM:11%
10%
change over 30 days
Blue Moon
15

Blue Moon

Sony Pictures Classics

WIN:0%
NOM:4%
3%
change over 30 days
The Testament of Ann Lee
16

The Testament of Ann Lee

Searchlight

WIN:0%
NOM:3%
14%
change over 30 days
Weapons
17

Weapons

Warner Bros.

WIN:0%
NOM:2%
Sirāt
18

Sirāt

Neon

WIN:0%
NOM:2%
2%
change over 30 days
F1
19

F1

Warner Bros.

WIN:0%
NOM:2%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
20

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

20th Century Studios

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
2%
change over 30 days
*Aggregated predictions from 6,810 users

Percentage Predicting over time

No Other Choice
Wicked: For Good
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Jay Kelly
Blue Moon
The Testament of Ann Lee
Weapons
Sirāt
F1
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%Nov 27Nov 30Dec 3Dec 6Dec 9Dec 13Dec 16Dec 19Dec 22Dec 2636%
No Other Choice
36% predicting on Dec 26
37%
No Other Choice
37% predicting on Dec 25
37%
No Other Choice
37% predicting on Dec 24
38%
No Other Choice
38% predicting on Dec 23
38%
No Other Choice
38% predicting on Dec 22
39%
No Other Choice
39% predicting on Dec 21
39%
No Other Choice
39% predicting on Dec 20
40%
No Other Choice
40% predicting on Dec 19
41%
No Other Choice
41% predicting on Dec 18
49%
No Other Choice
49% predicting on Dec 17
49%
No Other Choice
49% predicting on Dec 16
49%
No Other Choice
49% predicting on Dec 15
49%
No Other Choice
49% predicting on Dec 14
49%
No Other Choice
49% predicting on Dec 13
48%
No Other Choice
48% predicting on Dec 12
48%
No Other Choice
48% predicting on Dec 11
48%
No Other Choice
48% predicting on Dec 10
46%
No Other Choice
46% predicting on Dec 9
43%
No Other Choice
43% predicting on Dec 8
44%
No Other Choice
44% predicting on Dec 7
44%
No Other Choice
44% predicting on Dec 6
47%
No Other Choice
47% predicting on Dec 5
47%
No Other Choice
47% predicting on Dec 4
47%
No Other Choice
47% predicting on Dec 3
46%
No Other Choice
46% predicting on Dec 2
45%
No Other Choice
45% predicting on Dec 1
44%
No Other Choice
44% predicting on Nov 30
43%
No Other Choice
43% predicting on Nov 29
42%
No Other Choice
42% predicting on Nov 28
40%
No Other Choice
40% predicting on Nov 27
34%
Wicked: For Good
34% predicting on Dec 26
34%
Wicked: For Good
34% predicting on Dec 25
35%
Wicked: For Good
35% predicting on Dec 24
35%
Wicked: For Good
35% predicting on Dec 23
35%
Wicked: For Good
35% predicting on Dec 22
36%
Wicked: For Good
36% predicting on Dec 21
36%
Wicked: For Good
36% predicting on Dec 20
36%
Wicked: For Good
36% predicting on Dec 19
37%
Wicked: For Good
37% predicting on Dec 18
35%
Wicked: For Good
35% predicting on Dec 17
35%
Wicked: For Good
35% predicting on Dec 16
36%
Wicked: For Good
36% predicting on Dec 15
38%
Wicked: For Good
38% predicting on Dec 14
39%
Wicked: For Good
39% predicting on Dec 13
41%
Wicked: For Good
41% predicting on Dec 12
43%
Wicked: For Good
43% predicting on Dec 11
45%
Wicked: For Good
45% predicting on Dec 10
49%
Wicked: For Good
49% predicting on Dec 9
62%
Wicked: For Good
62% predicting on Dec 8
63%
Wicked: For Good
63% predicting on Dec 7
65%
Wicked: For Good
65% predicting on Dec 6
65%
Wicked: For Good
65% predicting on Dec 5
66%
Wicked: For Good
66% predicting on Dec 4
68%
Wicked: For Good
68% predicting on Dec 3
70%
Wicked: For Good
70% predicting on Dec 2
71%
Wicked: For Good
71% predicting on Dec 1
72%
Wicked: For Good
72% predicting on Nov 30
73%
Wicked: For Good
73% predicting on Nov 29
74%
Wicked: For Good
74% predicting on Nov 28
75%
Wicked: For Good
75% predicting on Nov 27
18%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
18% predicting on Dec 26
19%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
19% predicting on Dec 25
19%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
19% predicting on Dec 24
20%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
20% predicting on Dec 23
20%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
20% predicting on Dec 22
21%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
21% predicting on Dec 21
21%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
21% predicting on Dec 20
22%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
22% predicting on Dec 19
23%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
23% predicting on Dec 18
27%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
27% predicting on Dec 17
27%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
27% predicting on Dec 16
28%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
28% predicting on Dec 15
29%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
29% predicting on Dec 14
30%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
30% predicting on Dec 13
31%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
31% predicting on Dec 12
32%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
32% predicting on Dec 11
34%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
34% predicting on Dec 10
38%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
38% predicting on Dec 9
46%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
46% predicting on Dec 8
47%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
47% predicting on Dec 7
52%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
52% predicting on Dec 6
57%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
57% predicting on Dec 5
58%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
58% predicting on Dec 4
60%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
60% predicting on Dec 3
64%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
64% predicting on Dec 2
64%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
64% predicting on Dec 1
64%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
64% predicting on Nov 30
64%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
64% predicting on Nov 29
64%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
64% predicting on Nov 28
64%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
64% predicting on Nov 27
11%
Jay Kelly
11% predicting on Dec 26
11%
Jay Kelly
11% predicting on Dec 25
11%
Jay Kelly
11% predicting on Dec 24
11%
Jay Kelly
11% predicting on Dec 23
12%
Jay Kelly
12% predicting on Dec 22
12%
Jay Kelly
12% predicting on Dec 21
12%
Jay Kelly
12% predicting on Dec 20
13%
Jay Kelly
13% predicting on Dec 19
13%
Jay Kelly
13% predicting on Dec 18
17%
Jay Kelly
17% predicting on Dec 17
18%
Jay Kelly
18% predicting on Dec 16
18%
Jay Kelly
18% predicting on Dec 15
19%
Jay Kelly
19% predicting on Dec 14
19%
Jay Kelly
19% predicting on Dec 13
20%
Jay Kelly
20% predicting on Dec 12
20%
Jay Kelly
20% predicting on Dec 11
21%
Jay Kelly
21% predicting on Dec 10
23%
Jay Kelly
23% predicting on Dec 9
32%
Jay Kelly
32% predicting on Dec 8
31%
Jay Kelly
31% predicting on Dec 7
29%
Jay Kelly
29% predicting on Dec 6
26%
Jay Kelly
26% predicting on Dec 5
25%
Jay Kelly
25% predicting on Dec 4
23%
Jay Kelly
23% predicting on Dec 3
22%
Jay Kelly
22% predicting on Dec 2
22%
Jay Kelly
22% predicting on Dec 1
21%
Jay Kelly
21% predicting on Nov 30
21%
Jay Kelly
21% predicting on Nov 29
21%
Jay Kelly
21% predicting on Nov 28
20%
Jay Kelly
20% predicting on Nov 27
4%
Blue Moon
4% predicting on Dec 26
4%
Blue Moon
4% predicting on Dec 25
4%
Blue Moon
4% predicting on Dec 24
4%
Blue Moon
4% predicting on Dec 23
4%
Blue Moon
4% predicting on Dec 22
4%
Blue Moon
4% predicting on Dec 21
4%
Blue Moon
4% predicting on Dec 20
4%
Blue Moon
4% predicting on Dec 19
4%
Blue Moon
4% predicting on Dec 18
4%
Blue Moon
4% predicting on Dec 17
4%
Blue Moon
4% predicting on Dec 16
4%
Blue Moon
4% predicting on Dec 15
3%
Blue Moon
3% predicting on Dec 14
3%
Blue Moon
3% predicting on Dec 13
3%
Blue Moon
3% predicting on Dec 12
3%
Blue Moon
3% predicting on Dec 11
3%
Blue Moon
3% predicting on Dec 10
3%
Blue Moon
3% predicting on Dec 9
1%
Blue Moon
1% predicting on Dec 8
1%
Blue Moon
1% predicting on Dec 7
1%
Blue Moon
1% predicting on Dec 6
1%
Blue Moon
1% predicting on Dec 5
1%
Blue Moon
1% predicting on Dec 4
1%
Blue Moon
1% predicting on Dec 3
1%
Blue Moon
1% predicting on Dec 2
1%
Blue Moon
1% predicting on Dec 1
1%
Blue Moon
1% predicting on Nov 30
1%
Blue Moon
1% predicting on Nov 29
1%
Blue Moon
1% predicting on Nov 28
1%
Blue Moon
1% predicting on Nov 27
3%
The Testament of Ann Lee
3% predicting on Dec 26
3%
The Testament of Ann Lee
3% predicting on Dec 25
3%
The Testament of Ann Lee
3% predicting on Dec 24
3%
The Testament of Ann Lee
3% predicting on Dec 23
3%
The Testament of Ann Lee
3% predicting on Dec 22
3%
The Testament of Ann Lee
3% predicting on Dec 21
4%
The Testament of Ann Lee
4% predicting on Dec 20
4%
The Testament of Ann Lee
4% predicting on Dec 19
4%
The Testament of Ann Lee
4% predicting on Dec 18
5%
The Testament of Ann Lee
5% predicting on Dec 17
5%
The Testament of Ann Lee
5% predicting on Dec 16
5%
The Testament of Ann Lee
5% predicting on Dec 15
5%
The Testament of Ann Lee
5% predicting on Dec 14
6%
The Testament of Ann Lee
6% predicting on Dec 13
6%
The Testament of Ann Lee
6% predicting on Dec 12
6%
The Testament of Ann Lee
6% predicting on Dec 11
7%
The Testament of Ann Lee
7% predicting on Dec 10
8%
The Testament of Ann Lee
8% predicting on Dec 9
11%
The Testament of Ann Lee
11% predicting on Dec 8
11%
The Testament of Ann Lee
11% predicting on Dec 7
12%
The Testament of Ann Lee
12% predicting on Dec 6
14%
The Testament of Ann Lee
14% predicting on Dec 5
15%
The Testament of Ann Lee
15% predicting on Dec 4
16%
The Testament of Ann Lee
16% predicting on Dec 3
16%
The Testament of Ann Lee
16% predicting on Dec 2
16%
The Testament of Ann Lee
16% predicting on Dec 1
16%
The Testament of Ann Lee
16% predicting on Nov 30
16%
The Testament of Ann Lee
16% predicting on Nov 29
16%
The Testament of Ann Lee
16% predicting on Nov 28
17%
The Testament of Ann Lee
17% predicting on Nov 27
2%
Weapons
2% predicting on Dec 26
2%
Weapons
2% predicting on Dec 25
2%
Weapons
2% predicting on Dec 24
2%
Weapons
2% predicting on Dec 23
2%
Weapons
2% predicting on Dec 22
2%
Weapons
2% predicting on Dec 21
2%
Weapons
2% predicting on Dec 20
2%
Weapons
2% predicting on Dec 19
2%
Weapons
2% predicting on Dec 18
2%
Weapons
2% predicting on Dec 17
2%
Weapons
2% predicting on Dec 16
2%
Weapons
2% predicting on Dec 15
2%
Weapons
2% predicting on Dec 14
2%
Weapons
2% predicting on Dec 13
2%
Weapons
2% predicting on Dec 12
2%
Weapons
2% predicting on Dec 11
2%
Weapons
2% predicting on Dec 10
2%
Weapons
2% predicting on Dec 9
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Dec 8
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Dec 7
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Dec 6
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Dec 5
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Dec 4
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Dec 3
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Dec 2
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Dec 1
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Nov 30
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Nov 29
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Nov 28
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Nov 27
2%
Sirāt
2% predicting on Dec 26
2%
Sirāt
2% predicting on Dec 25
2%
Sirāt
2% predicting on Dec 24
2%
Sirāt
2% predicting on Dec 23
2%
Sirāt
2% predicting on Dec 22
2%
Sirāt
2% predicting on Dec 21
2%
Sirāt
2% predicting on Dec 20
1%
Sirāt
1% predicting on Dec 19
1%
Sirāt
1% predicting on Dec 18
0%
Sirāt
0% predicting on Dec 17
0%
Sirāt
0% predicting on Dec 16
0%
Sirāt
0% predicting on Dec 15
0%
Sirāt
0% predicting on Dec 14
0%
Sirāt
0% predicting on Dec 13
0%
Sirāt
0% predicting on Dec 12
0%
Sirāt
0% predicting on Dec 11
0%
Sirāt
0% predicting on Dec 10
0%
Sirāt
0% predicting on Dec 9
0%
Sirāt
0% predicting on Dec 8
0%
Sirāt
0% predicting on Dec 7
0%
Sirāt
0% predicting on Dec 6
0%
Sirāt
0% predicting on Dec 5
0%
Sirāt
0% predicting on Dec 4
0%
Sirāt
0% predicting on Dec 3
0%
Sirāt
0% predicting on Dec 2
0%
Sirāt
0% predicting on Dec 1
0%
Sirāt
0% predicting on Nov 30
0%
Sirāt
0% predicting on Nov 29
0%
Sirāt
0% predicting on Nov 28
0%
Sirāt
0% predicting on Nov 27
2%
F1
2% predicting on Dec 26
2%
F1
2% predicting on Dec 25
2%
F1
2% predicting on Dec 24
2%
F1
2% predicting on Dec 23
1%
F1
1% predicting on Dec 22
1%
F1
1% predicting on Dec 21
1%
F1
1% predicting on Dec 20
1%
F1
1% predicting on Dec 19
1%
F1
1% predicting on Dec 18
1%
F1
1% predicting on Dec 17
1%
F1
1% predicting on Dec 16
1%
F1
1% predicting on Dec 15
1%
F1
1% predicting on Dec 14
1%
F1
1% predicting on Dec 13
1%
F1
1% predicting on Dec 12
1%
F1
1% predicting on Dec 11
1%
F1
1% predicting on Dec 10
1%
F1
1% predicting on Dec 9
1%
F1
1% predicting on Dec 8
1%
F1
1% predicting on Dec 7
1%
F1
1% predicting on Dec 6
2%
F1
2% predicting on Dec 5
2%
F1
2% predicting on Dec 4
2%
F1
2% predicting on Dec 3
2%
F1
2% predicting on Dec 2
2%
F1
2% predicting on Dec 1
2%
F1
2% predicting on Nov 30
2%
F1
2% predicting on Nov 29
2%
F1
2% predicting on Nov 28
2%
F1
2% predicting on Nov 27
1%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
1% predicting on Dec 26
1%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
1% predicting on Dec 25
1%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
1% predicting on Dec 24
1%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
1% predicting on Dec 23
1%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
1% predicting on Dec 22
1%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
1% predicting on Dec 21
1%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
1% predicting on Dec 20
1%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
1% predicting on Dec 19
1%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
1% predicting on Dec 18
1%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
1% predicting on Dec 17
1%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
1% predicting on Dec 16
1%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
1% predicting on Dec 15
1%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
1% predicting on Dec 14
1%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
1% predicting on Dec 13
1%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
1% predicting on Dec 12
1%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
1% predicting on Dec 11
1%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
1% predicting on Dec 10
1%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
1% predicting on Dec 9
2%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
2% predicting on Dec 8
2%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
2% predicting on Dec 7
2%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
2% predicting on Dec 6
2%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
2% predicting on Dec 5
2%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
2% predicting on Dec 4
2%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
2% predicting on Dec 3
3%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
3% predicting on Dec 2
3%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
3% predicting on Dec 1
3%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
3% predicting on Nov 30
3%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
3% predicting on Nov 29
3%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
3% predicting on Nov 28
3%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
3% predicting on Nov 27
36%34%18%11%4%3%2%2%2%1%

Dark horses

Updated: Dec 26, 12:29 PM
Sorry, Baby
21

Sorry, Baby

A24

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Rental Family
22

Rental Family

Searchlight

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
A House of Dynamite
23

A House of Dynamite

Netflix

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
24

Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Netflix

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
The Smashing Machine
25

The Smashing Machine

A24

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
26

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

A24

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Die My Love
27

Die My Love

Mubi

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Is This Thing On?
28

Is This Thing On?

Searchlight

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
After the Hunt
29

After the Hunt

Amazon MGM Studios

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
The Life of Chuck
30

The Life of Chuck

Neon

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Nouvelle Vague
31

Nouvelle Vague

Netflix

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Mickey 17
32

Mickey 17

Warner Bros.

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Superman
33

Superman

Warner Bros.

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Eddington
34

Eddington

A24

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
The Voice of Hind Rajab
35

The Voice of Hind Rajab

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Ballad of a Small Player
36

Ballad of a Small Player

Netflix

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
28 Years Later
37

28 Years Later

Sony

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
KPop Demon Hunters
38

KPop Demon Hunters

Netflix

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Nuremberg
39

Nuremberg

Sony Pictures Classics

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
The Long Walk
40

The Long Walk

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Materialists
41

Materialists

A24

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Song Sung Blue
42

Song Sung Blue

Focus Features

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning
43

Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning

Paramount

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
The Phoenician Scheme
44

The Phoenician Scheme

Focus Features

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Sound of Falling
45

Sound of Falling

Mubi

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
The Rivals of Amziah King
46

The Rivals of Amziah King

Black Bear Pictures

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Twinless
47

Twinless

Roadside Attractions and Lionsgate

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Highest 2 Lowest
48

Highest 2 Lowest

A24

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Caught Stealing
49

Caught Stealing

Sony

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Anemone
50

Anemone

Focus Features

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
*Aggregated predictions from 6,810 users

Just one week into its theatrical release, 'One Battle After Another' has dramatically reshaped the awards landscape. Some are even declaring that the race is over, and for good reason.

This will likely be the single best reviewed film of 2025, boasting exceptional Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes scores. But the press aren't the only ones catching a fever. Paul Thomas Anderson's modern American epic is thrilling, funny, action-packed, and made with the multiplex audience in mind. The pacing is breathless and never lets up throughout the 2hr 45min runtime.

"It's time to Paul Thomas Anderson an Oscar" chatter is already deafening. Celebrating an auteur director has helped Best Picture winners like Anora and Oppenheimer in recent years.

Set against the backdrop of a revolutionary group battling their government as immigrant populations face mass detention, 'One Battle After Another' arrives at a politically charged moment. This gives voters a broader reason to award the film as ICE raids sweep cities like Los Angeles.

Ryan Coogler's 'Sinners' and Festival Favorites Maintain Strong Positions

Many users have shifted their number-one prediction from 'Sinners' to 'One Battle After Another'. But confidence in Ryan Coogler's genre-defying vampire film remains remarkably high for a nomination. This highly original, genre-bending, musical period drama took both audiences and the box office by storm when it premiered in April. Passion from critics and moviegoers hungry for thought-provoking, original cinema gives it staying power.

Chloe Zhao's 'Hamnet' emerged as the biggest success from the fall festival circuit, winning the People's Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festial, indicating strong support from audiences. The film explores the love and loss that inspired Shakespeare's 'Hamlet'. Holding a stellar 90 on Metacritic, 'Hamnet' proves it's not just an audience hit, but loved across the board for its portrait of grief and healing. Bring the tissues.

'Sentimental Value' continues to hold strong as it completes its festival run. Predicted to be an awards darling since its premiere at the Cannes Film Festival, this is the most likely international film to land a nomination next year. Excitement for writer/director Joachim Trier's filmmaking and support for the outstanding ensemble cast make this one hard to bet against.

Unseen Contenders 'Marty Supreme' and 'Wicked: For Good' Maintain Buzz

Josh Safdie's 'Marty Supreme', starring Timothée Chalamet, is holding impressively strong at 89% prediction despite no one having seen it yet. As A24's flagship awards contender this season, the trailer promises a highly entertaining, funny, sports-centered thrill ride that could appeal to both audiences and critics. The studio's track record and Chalamet's star power keep expectations elevated.

'Wicked: For Good' remains a safe bet following the stellar ten nominations its predecessor received during last year's awards season. Since both films were shot simultaneously, prognosticators see little reason to expect dramatically different results. The built-in fanbase and director Jon M. Chu's steady hand make it a reliable prediction for nomination consideration.

Neon Emerges as Major Player with Multiple Contenders

Following its Palme d'Or victory, 'It Was Just An Accident' has only gained momentum. Some prognosticators expressed skepticism that this simmering Iranian drama could be an awards play. But Neon is determined to make the world know director Jafar Panahi's name, a filmmaker who has made over a dozen films and been imprisoned for his craft by the Iranian government. The film's presence at TIFF and Telluride has increased confidence among users.

Just when it appeared Neon had its hands full with 'Sentimental Value' and 'It Was Just An Accident', 'No Other Choice' has lept into the race with an excellent reception at Venice and TIFF, where it won the International People's Choice Award. Park Chan-Wook is yet another filmmaker overdue for international recognition, and it might arrive with his latest dark comedy which examines the brutality of the job market in our capitalist landscape.

It might seem too good to be true that Neon could land three international films in Best Picture, and it would be astounding if they pulled it off. Let's have our fingers crossed.

Festival Reception Shifts Predictions for 'Bugonia' and 'Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere'

'Bugonia' and 'Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere', both widely considered solid contenders before the fall festivals, have seen user confidence waver. 'Hamnet' effectively took the spot as Focus Features' main awards horse as 'Bugonia' received mostly positive but somewhat mixed reactions.

'Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere' premiered to good-not-great reactions from press. Though confidence remains strong in the film's highly anticipated performances from Jeremy Allen White as Bruce Springsteen and Jeremy Strong as his manager. The acting potential may be enough to keep the film in consideration.