Award Expert

2026 Oscars Predictions: Best Picture

'One Battle After Another' Skyrockets to Lead Best Picture Race After Premiere

Updated: Oct 3

Predicted nominees

Scroll to analysis
Updated: Nov 10, 6:29 PM
One Battle After Another
1

One Battle After Another

Warner Bros.

WIN:82%
4%
change over 30 days
NOM:98%
Sinners
2

Sinners

Warner Bros.

WIN:6%
4%
change over 30 days
NOM:98%
Hamnet
3

Hamnet

Focus Features

WIN:8%
NOM:95%
Sentimental Value
4

Sentimental Value

Neon

WIN:1%
NOM:94%
Marty Supreme
5

Marty Supreme

A24

WIN:1%
NOM:94%
2%
change over 30 days
Wicked: For Good
6

Wicked: For Good

Universal

WIN:1%
NOM:91%
4%
change over 30 days
It Was Just an Accident
7

It Was Just an Accident

Neon

WIN:0%
NOM:83%
14%
change over 30 days
Frankenstein
8

Frankenstein

Netflix

WIN:0%
NOM:78%
40%
change over 30 days
Avatar: Fire and Ash
9

Avatar: Fire and Ash

20th Century Studios

WIN:0%
NOM:62%
15%
change over 30 days
Bugonia
10

Bugonia

Focus Features

WIN:0%
NOM:52%
*Aggregated predictions from 5,323 users

Percentage Predicting over time

One Battle After Another
Sinners
Hamnet
Sentimental Value
Marty Supreme
Wicked: For Good
It Was Just an Accident
Frankenstein
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Bugonia
20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Oct 12Oct 15Oct 18Oct 21Oct 24Oct 28Oct 31Nov 3Nov 6Nov 1099%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Nov 10
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Nov 9
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Nov 8
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Nov 7
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Nov 6
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Nov 5
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Nov 4
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Nov 3
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Nov 2
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Nov 1
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Oct 31
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Oct 30
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Oct 29
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Oct 28
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Oct 27
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Oct 26
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Oct 25
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Oct 24
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Oct 23
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Oct 22
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Oct 21
98%
One Battle After Another
98% predicting on Oct 20
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Oct 19
98%
One Battle After Another
98% predicting on Oct 18
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Oct 17
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Oct 16
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Oct 15
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Oct 14
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Oct 13
99%
One Battle After Another
99% predicting on Oct 12
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Nov 10
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Nov 9
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Nov 8
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Nov 7
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Nov 6
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Nov 5
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Nov 4
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Nov 3
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Nov 2
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Nov 1
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Oct 31
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Oct 30
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Oct 29
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Oct 28
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Oct 27
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Oct 26
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Oct 25
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Oct 24
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Oct 23
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Oct 22
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Oct 21
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Oct 20
97%
Sinners
97% predicting on Oct 19
97%
Sinners
97% predicting on Oct 18
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Oct 17
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Oct 16
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Oct 15
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Oct 14
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Oct 13
98%
Sinners
98% predicting on Oct 12
96%
Hamnet
96% predicting on Nov 10
96%
Hamnet
96% predicting on Nov 9
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Nov 8
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Nov 7
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Nov 6
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Nov 5
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Nov 4
96%
Hamnet
96% predicting on Nov 3
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Nov 2
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Nov 1
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Oct 31
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Oct 30
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Oct 29
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Oct 28
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Oct 27
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Oct 26
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Oct 25
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Oct 24
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Oct 23
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Oct 22
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Oct 21
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Oct 20
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Oct 19
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Oct 18
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Oct 17
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Oct 16
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Oct 15
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Oct 14
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Oct 13
95%
Hamnet
95% predicting on Oct 12
95%
Sentimental Value
95% predicting on Nov 10
95%
Sentimental Value
95% predicting on Nov 9
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Nov 8
95%
Sentimental Value
95% predicting on Nov 7
95%
Sentimental Value
95% predicting on Nov 6
95%
Sentimental Value
95% predicting on Nov 5
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Nov 4
95%
Sentimental Value
95% predicting on Nov 3
95%
Sentimental Value
95% predicting on Nov 2
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Nov 1
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Oct 31
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Oct 30
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Oct 29
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Oct 28
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Oct 27
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Oct 26
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Oct 25
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Oct 24
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Oct 23
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Oct 22
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Oct 21
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Oct 20
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Oct 19
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Oct 18
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Oct 17
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Oct 16
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Oct 15
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Oct 14
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Oct 13
94%
Sentimental Value
94% predicting on Oct 12
95%
Marty Supreme
95% predicting on Nov 10
95%
Marty Supreme
95% predicting on Nov 9
95%
Marty Supreme
95% predicting on Nov 8
95%
Marty Supreme
95% predicting on Nov 7
95%
Marty Supreme
95% predicting on Nov 6
95%
Marty Supreme
95% predicting on Nov 5
95%
Marty Supreme
95% predicting on Nov 4
95%
Marty Supreme
95% predicting on Nov 3
95%
Marty Supreme
95% predicting on Nov 2
95%
Marty Supreme
95% predicting on Nov 1
95%
Marty Supreme
95% predicting on Oct 31
95%
Marty Supreme
95% predicting on Oct 30
94%
Marty Supreme
94% predicting on Oct 29
94%
Marty Supreme
94% predicting on Oct 28
94%
Marty Supreme
94% predicting on Oct 27
94%
Marty Supreme
94% predicting on Oct 26
94%
Marty Supreme
94% predicting on Oct 25
94%
Marty Supreme
94% predicting on Oct 24
94%
Marty Supreme
94% predicting on Oct 23
93%
Marty Supreme
93% predicting on Oct 22
93%
Marty Supreme
93% predicting on Oct 21
93%
Marty Supreme
93% predicting on Oct 20
93%
Marty Supreme
93% predicting on Oct 19
93%
Marty Supreme
93% predicting on Oct 18
93%
Marty Supreme
93% predicting on Oct 17
93%
Marty Supreme
93% predicting on Oct 16
93%
Marty Supreme
93% predicting on Oct 15
92%
Marty Supreme
92% predicting on Oct 14
92%
Marty Supreme
92% predicting on Oct 13
92%
Marty Supreme
92% predicting on Oct 12
92%
Wicked: For Good
92% predicting on Nov 10
92%
Wicked: For Good
92% predicting on Nov 9
91%
Wicked: For Good
91% predicting on Nov 8
91%
Wicked: For Good
91% predicting on Nov 7
91%
Wicked: For Good
91% predicting on Nov 6
91%
Wicked: For Good
91% predicting on Nov 5
90%
Wicked: For Good
90% predicting on Nov 4
90%
Wicked: For Good
90% predicting on Nov 3
90%
Wicked: For Good
90% predicting on Nov 2
90%
Wicked: For Good
90% predicting on Nov 1
90%
Wicked: For Good
90% predicting on Oct 31
89%
Wicked: For Good
89% predicting on Oct 30
89%
Wicked: For Good
89% predicting on Oct 29
89%
Wicked: For Good
89% predicting on Oct 28
89%
Wicked: For Good
89% predicting on Oct 27
89%
Wicked: For Good
89% predicting on Oct 26
88%
Wicked: For Good
88% predicting on Oct 25
88%
Wicked: For Good
88% predicting on Oct 24
88%
Wicked: For Good
88% predicting on Oct 23
88%
Wicked: For Good
88% predicting on Oct 22
88%
Wicked: For Good
88% predicting on Oct 21
88%
Wicked: For Good
88% predicting on Oct 20
88%
Wicked: For Good
88% predicting on Oct 19
88%
Wicked: For Good
88% predicting on Oct 18
88%
Wicked: For Good
88% predicting on Oct 17
88%
Wicked: For Good
88% predicting on Oct 16
87%
Wicked: For Good
87% predicting on Oct 15
87%
Wicked: For Good
87% predicting on Oct 14
87%
Wicked: For Good
87% predicting on Oct 13
87%
Wicked: For Good
87% predicting on Oct 12
84%
It Was Just an Accident
84% predicting on Nov 10
84%
It Was Just an Accident
84% predicting on Nov 9
83%
It Was Just an Accident
83% predicting on Nov 8
82%
It Was Just an Accident
82% predicting on Nov 7
82%
It Was Just an Accident
82% predicting on Nov 6
82%
It Was Just an Accident
82% predicting on Nov 5
81%
It Was Just an Accident
81% predicting on Nov 4
81%
It Was Just an Accident
81% predicting on Nov 3
81%
It Was Just an Accident
81% predicting on Nov 2
80%
It Was Just an Accident
80% predicting on Nov 1
80%
It Was Just an Accident
80% predicting on Oct 31
79%
It Was Just an Accident
79% predicting on Oct 30
79%
It Was Just an Accident
79% predicting on Oct 29
78%
It Was Just an Accident
78% predicting on Oct 28
78%
It Was Just an Accident
78% predicting on Oct 27
77%
It Was Just an Accident
77% predicting on Oct 26
77%
It Was Just an Accident
77% predicting on Oct 25
76%
It Was Just an Accident
76% predicting on Oct 24
76%
It Was Just an Accident
76% predicting on Oct 23
75%
It Was Just an Accident
75% predicting on Oct 22
75%
It Was Just an Accident
75% predicting on Oct 21
74%
It Was Just an Accident
74% predicting on Oct 20
74%
It Was Just an Accident
74% predicting on Oct 19
73%
It Was Just an Accident
73% predicting on Oct 18
73%
It Was Just an Accident
73% predicting on Oct 17
72%
It Was Just an Accident
72% predicting on Oct 16
71%
It Was Just an Accident
71% predicting on Oct 15
70%
It Was Just an Accident
70% predicting on Oct 14
70%
It Was Just an Accident
70% predicting on Oct 13
70%
It Was Just an Accident
70% predicting on Oct 12
77%
Frankenstein
77% predicting on Nov 10
76%
Frankenstein
76% predicting on Nov 9
72%
Frankenstein
72% predicting on Nov 8
71%
Frankenstein
71% predicting on Nov 7
70%
Frankenstein
70% predicting on Nov 6
69%
Frankenstein
69% predicting on Nov 5
68%
Frankenstein
68% predicting on Nov 4
67%
Frankenstein
67% predicting on Nov 3
67%
Frankenstein
67% predicting on Nov 2
66%
Frankenstein
66% predicting on Nov 1
64%
Frankenstein
64% predicting on Oct 31
63%
Frankenstein
63% predicting on Oct 30
62%
Frankenstein
62% predicting on Oct 29
60%
Frankenstein
60% predicting on Oct 28
59%
Frankenstein
59% predicting on Oct 27
57%
Frankenstein
57% predicting on Oct 26
55%
Frankenstein
55% predicting on Oct 25
54%
Frankenstein
54% predicting on Oct 24
53%
Frankenstein
53% predicting on Oct 23
51%
Frankenstein
51% predicting on Oct 22
50%
Frankenstein
50% predicting on Oct 21
48%
Frankenstein
48% predicting on Oct 20
47%
Frankenstein
47% predicting on Oct 19
45%
Frankenstein
45% predicting on Oct 18
43%
Frankenstein
43% predicting on Oct 17
41%
Frankenstein
41% predicting on Oct 16
40%
Frankenstein
40% predicting on Oct 15
39%
Frankenstein
39% predicting on Oct 14
39%
Frankenstein
39% predicting on Oct 13
38%
Frankenstein
38% predicting on Oct 12
62%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
62% predicting on Nov 10
62%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
62% predicting on Nov 9
62%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
62% predicting on Nov 8
62%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
62% predicting on Nov 7
62%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
62% predicting on Nov 6
62%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
62% predicting on Nov 5
62%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
62% predicting on Nov 4
62%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
62% predicting on Nov 3
62%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
62% predicting on Nov 2
62%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
62% predicting on Nov 1
61%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
61% predicting on Oct 31
61%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
61% predicting on Oct 30
61%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
61% predicting on Oct 29
60%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
60% predicting on Oct 28
60%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
60% predicting on Oct 27
59%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
59% predicting on Oct 26
59%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
59% predicting on Oct 25
57%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
57% predicting on Oct 24
57%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
57% predicting on Oct 23
56%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
56% predicting on Oct 22
56%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
56% predicting on Oct 21
55%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
55% predicting on Oct 20
54%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
54% predicting on Oct 19
54%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
54% predicting on Oct 18
52%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
52% predicting on Oct 17
51%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
51% predicting on Oct 16
49%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
49% predicting on Oct 15
48%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
48% predicting on Oct 14
48%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
48% predicting on Oct 13
47%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
47% predicting on Oct 12
52%
Bugonia
52% predicting on Nov 10
52%
Bugonia
52% predicting on Nov 9
52%
Bugonia
52% predicting on Nov 8
52%
Bugonia
52% predicting on Nov 7
52%
Bugonia
52% predicting on Nov 6
52%
Bugonia
52% predicting on Nov 5
52%
Bugonia
52% predicting on Nov 4
52%
Bugonia
52% predicting on Nov 3
51%
Bugonia
51% predicting on Nov 2
51%
Bugonia
51% predicting on Nov 1
50%
Bugonia
50% predicting on Oct 31
50%
Bugonia
50% predicting on Oct 30
50%
Bugonia
50% predicting on Oct 29
50%
Bugonia
50% predicting on Oct 28
51%
Bugonia
51% predicting on Oct 27
51%
Bugonia
51% predicting on Oct 26
51%
Bugonia
51% predicting on Oct 25
51%
Bugonia
51% predicting on Oct 24
52%
Bugonia
52% predicting on Oct 23
52%
Bugonia
52% predicting on Oct 22
52%
Bugonia
52% predicting on Oct 21
52%
Bugonia
52% predicting on Oct 20
52%
Bugonia
52% predicting on Oct 19
52%
Bugonia
52% predicting on Oct 18
53%
Bugonia
53% predicting on Oct 17
53%
Bugonia
53% predicting on Oct 16
53%
Bugonia
53% predicting on Oct 15
53%
Bugonia
53% predicting on Oct 14
53%
Bugonia
53% predicting on Oct 13
53%
Bugonia
53% predicting on Oct 12
99%98%96%95%95%92%84%77%62%52%

Just one week into its theatrical release, 'One Battle After Another' has dramatically reshaped the awards landscape. Some are even declaring that the race is over, and for good reason.

This will likely be the single best reviewed film of 2025, boasting exceptional Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes scores. But the press aren't the only ones catching a fever. Paul Thomas Anderson's modern American epic is thrilling, funny, action-packed, and made with the multiplex audience in mind. The pacing is breathless and never lets up throughout the 2hr 45min runtime.

"It's time to Paul Thomas Anderson an Oscar" chatter is already deafening. Celebrating an auteur director has helped Best Picture winners like Anora and Oppenheimer in recent years.

Set against the backdrop of a revolutionary group battling their government as immigrant populations face mass detention, 'One Battle After Another' arrives at a politically charged moment. This gives voters a broader reason to award the film as ICE raids sweep cities like Los Angeles.

Ryan Coogler's 'Sinners' and Festival Favorites Maintain Strong Positions

Many users have shifted their number-one prediction from 'Sinners' to 'One Battle After Another'. But confidence in Ryan Coogler's genre-defying vampire film remains remarkably high for a nomination. This highly original, genre-bending, musical period drama took both audiences and the box office by storm when it premiered in April. Passion from critics and moviegoers hungry for thought-provoking, original cinema gives it staying power.

Chloe Zhao's 'Hamnet' emerged as the biggest success from the fall festival circuit, winning the People's Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festial, indicating strong support from audiences. The film explores the love and loss that inspired Shakespeare's 'Hamlet'. Holding a stellar 90 on Metacritic, 'Hamnet' proves it's not just an audience hit, but loved across the board for its portrait of grief and healing. Bring the tissues.

'Sentimental Value' continues to hold strong as it completes its festival run. Predicted to be an awards darling since its premiere at the Cannes Film Festival, this is the most likely international film to land a nomination next year. Excitement for writer/director Joachim Trier's filmmaking and support for the outstanding ensemble cast make this one hard to bet against.

Unseen Contenders 'Marty Supreme' and 'Wicked: For Good' Maintain Buzz

Josh Safdie's 'Marty Supreme', starring Timothée Chalamet, is holding impressively strong at 89% prediction despite no one having seen it yet. As A24's flagship awards contender this season, the trailer promises a highly entertaining, funny, sports-centered thrill ride that could appeal to both audiences and critics. The studio's track record and Chalamet's star power keep expectations elevated.

'Wicked: For Good' remains a safe bet following the stellar ten nominations its predecessor received during last year's awards season. Since both films were shot simultaneously, prognosticators see little reason to expect dramatically different results. The built-in fanbase and director Jon M. Chu's steady hand make it a reliable prediction for nomination consideration.

Neon Emerges as Major Player with Multiple Contenders

Following its Palme d'Or victory, 'It Was Just An Accident' has only gained momentum. Some prognosticators expressed skepticism that this simmering Iranian drama could be an awards play. But Neon is determined to make the world know director Jafar Panahi's name, a filmmaker who has made over a dozen films and been imprisoned for his craft by the Iranian government. The film's presence at TIFF and Telluride has increased confidence among users.

Just when it appeared Neon had its hands full with 'Sentimental Value' and 'It Was Just An Accident', 'No Other Choice' has lept into the race with an excellent reception at Venice and TIFF, where it won the International People's Choice Award. Park Chan-Wook is yet another filmmaker overdue for international recognition, and it might arrive with his latest dark comedy which examines the brutality of the job market in our capitalist landscape.

It might seem too good to be true that Neon could land three international films in Best Picture, and it would be astounding if they pulled it off. Let's have our fingers crossed.

Festival Reception Shifts Predictions for 'Bugonia' and 'Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere'

'Bugonia' and 'Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere', both widely considered solid contenders before the fall festivals, have seen user confidence waver. 'Hamnet' effectively took the spot as Focus Features' main awards horse as 'Bugonia' received mostly positive but somewhat mixed reactions.

'Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere' premiered to good-not-great reactions from press. Though confidence remains strong in the film's highly anticipated performances from Jeremy Allen White as Bruce Springsteen and Jeremy Strong as his manager. The acting potential may be enough to keep the film in consideration.

Next in line

Scroll to analysis
Updated: Nov 10, 6:29 PM
No Other Choice
11

No Other Choice

Neon

WIN:0%
NOM:41%
5%
change over 30 days
Jay Kelly
12

Jay Kelly

Netflix

WIN:0%
NOM:16%
7%
change over 30 days
The Testament of Ann Lee
13

The Testament of Ann Lee

Searchlight

WIN:0%
NOM:14%
5%
change over 30 days
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
14

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

20th Century Studios

WIN:0%
NOM:9%
41%
change over 30 days
The Secret Agent
15

The Secret Agent

Neon

WIN:0%
NOM:8%
3%
change over 30 days
A House of Dynamite
16

A House of Dynamite

Netflix

WIN:0%
NOM:4%
19%
change over 30 days
Train Dreams
17

Train Dreams

Netflix

WIN:0%
NOM:5%
4%
change over 30 days
Weapons
18

Weapons

Warner Bros.

WIN:0%
NOM:3%
Rental Family
19

Rental Family

Searchlight

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
3%
change over 30 days
Is This Thing On?
20

Is This Thing On?

Searchlight

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
2%
change over 30 days
*Aggregated predictions from 5,323 users

Percentage Predicting over time

No Other Choice
Jay Kelly
The Testament of Ann Lee
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
The Secret Agent
Train Dreams
A House of Dynamite
Weapons
Rental Family
Is This Thing On?
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%Oct 12Oct 15Oct 18Oct 21Oct 24Oct 28Oct 31Nov 3Nov 6Nov 1041%
No Other Choice
41% predicting on Nov 10
42%
No Other Choice
42% predicting on Nov 9
42%
No Other Choice
42% predicting on Nov 8
43%
No Other Choice
43% predicting on Nov 7
43%
No Other Choice
43% predicting on Nov 6
43%
No Other Choice
43% predicting on Nov 5
43%
No Other Choice
43% predicting on Nov 4
43%
No Other Choice
43% predicting on Nov 3
43%
No Other Choice
43% predicting on Nov 2
44%
No Other Choice
44% predicting on Nov 1
44%
No Other Choice
44% predicting on Oct 31
44%
No Other Choice
44% predicting on Oct 30
44%
No Other Choice
44% predicting on Oct 29
45%
No Other Choice
45% predicting on Oct 28
45%
No Other Choice
45% predicting on Oct 27
45%
No Other Choice
45% predicting on Oct 26
45%
No Other Choice
45% predicting on Oct 25
45%
No Other Choice
45% predicting on Oct 24
46%
No Other Choice
46% predicting on Oct 23
45%
No Other Choice
45% predicting on Oct 22
45%
No Other Choice
45% predicting on Oct 21
45%
No Other Choice
45% predicting on Oct 20
46%
No Other Choice
46% predicting on Oct 19
46%
No Other Choice
46% predicting on Oct 18
46%
No Other Choice
46% predicting on Oct 17
46%
No Other Choice
46% predicting on Oct 16
45%
No Other Choice
45% predicting on Oct 15
45%
No Other Choice
45% predicting on Oct 14
45%
No Other Choice
45% predicting on Oct 13
45%
No Other Choice
45% predicting on Oct 12
16%
Jay Kelly
16% predicting on Nov 10
17%
Jay Kelly
17% predicting on Nov 9
18%
Jay Kelly
18% predicting on Nov 8
18%
Jay Kelly
18% predicting on Nov 7
18%
Jay Kelly
18% predicting on Nov 6
18%
Jay Kelly
18% predicting on Nov 5
19%
Jay Kelly
19% predicting on Nov 4
19%
Jay Kelly
19% predicting on Nov 3
19%
Jay Kelly
19% predicting on Nov 2
19%
Jay Kelly
19% predicting on Nov 1
20%
Jay Kelly
20% predicting on Oct 31
20%
Jay Kelly
20% predicting on Oct 30
20%
Jay Kelly
20% predicting on Oct 29
20%
Jay Kelly
20% predicting on Oct 28
20%
Jay Kelly
20% predicting on Oct 27
20%
Jay Kelly
20% predicting on Oct 26
19%
Jay Kelly
19% predicting on Oct 25
19%
Jay Kelly
19% predicting on Oct 24
19%
Jay Kelly
19% predicting on Oct 23
19%
Jay Kelly
19% predicting on Oct 22
20%
Jay Kelly
20% predicting on Oct 21
20%
Jay Kelly
20% predicting on Oct 20
21%
Jay Kelly
21% predicting on Oct 19
21%
Jay Kelly
21% predicting on Oct 18
21%
Jay Kelly
21% predicting on Oct 17
22%
Jay Kelly
22% predicting on Oct 16
22%
Jay Kelly
22% predicting on Oct 15
22%
Jay Kelly
22% predicting on Oct 14
23%
Jay Kelly
23% predicting on Oct 13
23%
Jay Kelly
23% predicting on Oct 12
14%
The Testament of Ann Lee
14% predicting on Nov 10
14%
The Testament of Ann Lee
14% predicting on Nov 9
13%
The Testament of Ann Lee
13% predicting on Nov 8
12%
The Testament of Ann Lee
12% predicting on Nov 7
11%
The Testament of Ann Lee
11% predicting on Nov 6
11%
The Testament of Ann Lee
11% predicting on Nov 5
11%
The Testament of Ann Lee
11% predicting on Nov 4
11%
The Testament of Ann Lee
11% predicting on Nov 3
11%
The Testament of Ann Lee
11% predicting on Nov 2
11%
The Testament of Ann Lee
11% predicting on Nov 1
11%
The Testament of Ann Lee
11% predicting on Oct 31
11%
The Testament of Ann Lee
11% predicting on Oct 30
11%
The Testament of Ann Lee
11% predicting on Oct 29
11%
The Testament of Ann Lee
11% predicting on Oct 28
11%
The Testament of Ann Lee
11% predicting on Oct 27
11%
The Testament of Ann Lee
11% predicting on Oct 26
11%
The Testament of Ann Lee
11% predicting on Oct 25
11%
The Testament of Ann Lee
11% predicting on Oct 24
11%
The Testament of Ann Lee
11% predicting on Oct 23
11%
The Testament of Ann Lee
11% predicting on Oct 22
10%
The Testament of Ann Lee
10% predicting on Oct 21
10%
The Testament of Ann Lee
10% predicting on Oct 20
10%
The Testament of Ann Lee
10% predicting on Oct 19
10%
The Testament of Ann Lee
10% predicting on Oct 18
10%
The Testament of Ann Lee
10% predicting on Oct 17
10%
The Testament of Ann Lee
10% predicting on Oct 16
10%
The Testament of Ann Lee
10% predicting on Oct 15
10%
The Testament of Ann Lee
10% predicting on Oct 14
10%
The Testament of Ann Lee
10% predicting on Oct 13
10%
The Testament of Ann Lee
10% predicting on Oct 12
10%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10% predicting on Nov 10
10%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10% predicting on Nov 9
13%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
13% predicting on Nov 8
14%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
14% predicting on Nov 7
15%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
15% predicting on Nov 6
16%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
16% predicting on Nov 5
16%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
16% predicting on Nov 4
17%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
17% predicting on Nov 3
18%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
18% predicting on Nov 2
19%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
19% predicting on Nov 1
20%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
20% predicting on Oct 31
21%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
21% predicting on Oct 30
22%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
22% predicting on Oct 29
24%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
24% predicting on Oct 28
25%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
25% predicting on Oct 27
27%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
27% predicting on Oct 26
29%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
29% predicting on Oct 25
30%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
30% predicting on Oct 24
31%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
31% predicting on Oct 23
33%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
33% predicting on Oct 22
34%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
34% predicting on Oct 21
36%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
36% predicting on Oct 20
37%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
37% predicting on Oct 19
39%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
39% predicting on Oct 18
41%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
41% predicting on Oct 17
44%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
44% predicting on Oct 16
47%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
47% predicting on Oct 15
49%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
49% predicting on Oct 14
50%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
50% predicting on Oct 13
50%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
50% predicting on Oct 12
8%
The Secret Agent
8% predicting on Nov 10
8%
The Secret Agent
8% predicting on Nov 9
8%
The Secret Agent
8% predicting on Nov 8
8%
The Secret Agent
8% predicting on Nov 7
8%
The Secret Agent
8% predicting on Nov 6
8%
The Secret Agent
8% predicting on Nov 5
8%
The Secret Agent
8% predicting on Nov 4
8%
The Secret Agent
8% predicting on Nov 3
8%
The Secret Agent
8% predicting on Nov 2
8%
The Secret Agent
8% predicting on Nov 1
8%
The Secret Agent
8% predicting on Oct 31
7%
The Secret Agent
7% predicting on Oct 30
7%
The Secret Agent
7% predicting on Oct 29
7%
The Secret Agent
7% predicting on Oct 28
7%
The Secret Agent
7% predicting on Oct 27
7%
The Secret Agent
7% predicting on Oct 26
7%
The Secret Agent
7% predicting on Oct 25
7%
The Secret Agent
7% predicting on Oct 24
6%
The Secret Agent
6% predicting on Oct 23
6%
The Secret Agent
6% predicting on Oct 22
6%
The Secret Agent
6% predicting on Oct 21
6%
The Secret Agent
6% predicting on Oct 20
6%
The Secret Agent
6% predicting on Oct 19
5%
The Secret Agent
5% predicting on Oct 18
5%
The Secret Agent
5% predicting on Oct 17
5%
The Secret Agent
5% predicting on Oct 16
5%
The Secret Agent
5% predicting on Oct 15
5%
The Secret Agent
5% predicting on Oct 14
5%
The Secret Agent
5% predicting on Oct 13
5%
The Secret Agent
5% predicting on Oct 12
5%
Train Dreams
5% predicting on Nov 10
5%
Train Dreams
5% predicting on Nov 9
5%
Train Dreams
5% predicting on Nov 8
5%
Train Dreams
5% predicting on Nov 7
5%
Train Dreams
5% predicting on Nov 6
4%
Train Dreams
4% predicting on Nov 5
4%
Train Dreams
4% predicting on Nov 4
4%
Train Dreams
4% predicting on Nov 3
4%
Train Dreams
4% predicting on Nov 2
4%
Train Dreams
4% predicting on Nov 1
3%
Train Dreams
3% predicting on Oct 31
3%
Train Dreams
3% predicting on Oct 30
3%
Train Dreams
3% predicting on Oct 29
3%
Train Dreams
3% predicting on Oct 28
2%
Train Dreams
2% predicting on Oct 27
2%
Train Dreams
2% predicting on Oct 26
2%
Train Dreams
2% predicting on Oct 25
2%
Train Dreams
2% predicting on Oct 24
2%
Train Dreams
2% predicting on Oct 23
2%
Train Dreams
2% predicting on Oct 22
2%
Train Dreams
2% predicting on Oct 21
2%
Train Dreams
2% predicting on Oct 20
2%
Train Dreams
2% predicting on Oct 19
2%
Train Dreams
2% predicting on Oct 18
2%
Train Dreams
2% predicting on Oct 17
2%
Train Dreams
2% predicting on Oct 16
2%
Train Dreams
2% predicting on Oct 15
1%
Train Dreams
1% predicting on Oct 14
1%
Train Dreams
1% predicting on Oct 13
1%
Train Dreams
1% predicting on Oct 12
4%
A House of Dynamite
4% predicting on Nov 10
4%
A House of Dynamite
4% predicting on Nov 9
5%
A House of Dynamite
5% predicting on Nov 8
6%
A House of Dynamite
6% predicting on Nov 7
6%
A House of Dynamite
6% predicting on Nov 6
6%
A House of Dynamite
6% predicting on Nov 5
6%
A House of Dynamite
6% predicting on Nov 4
7%
A House of Dynamite
7% predicting on Nov 3
7%
A House of Dynamite
7% predicting on Nov 2
8%
A House of Dynamite
8% predicting on Nov 1
8%
A House of Dynamite
8% predicting on Oct 31
9%
A House of Dynamite
9% predicting on Oct 30
9%
A House of Dynamite
9% predicting on Oct 29
10%
A House of Dynamite
10% predicting on Oct 28
11%
A House of Dynamite
11% predicting on Oct 27
11%
A House of Dynamite
11% predicting on Oct 26
12%
A House of Dynamite
12% predicting on Oct 25
13%
A House of Dynamite
13% predicting on Oct 24
14%
A House of Dynamite
14% predicting on Oct 23
14%
A House of Dynamite
14% predicting on Oct 22
15%
A House of Dynamite
15% predicting on Oct 21
16%
A House of Dynamite
16% predicting on Oct 20
17%
A House of Dynamite
17% predicting on Oct 19
18%
A House of Dynamite
18% predicting on Oct 18
19%
A House of Dynamite
19% predicting on Oct 17
20%
A House of Dynamite
20% predicting on Oct 16
21%
A House of Dynamite
21% predicting on Oct 15
21%
A House of Dynamite
21% predicting on Oct 14
22%
A House of Dynamite
22% predicting on Oct 13
22%
A House of Dynamite
22% predicting on Oct 12
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Nov 10
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Nov 9
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Nov 8
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Nov 7
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Nov 6
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Nov 5
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Nov 4
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Nov 3
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Nov 2
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Nov 1
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Oct 31
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Oct 30
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Oct 29
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Oct 28
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Oct 27
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Oct 26
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Oct 25
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Oct 24
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Oct 23
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Oct 22
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Oct 21
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Oct 20
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Oct 19
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Oct 18
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Oct 17
3%
Weapons
3% predicting on Oct 16
2%
Weapons
2% predicting on Oct 15
2%
Weapons
2% predicting on Oct 14
2%
Weapons
2% predicting on Oct 13
2%
Weapons
2% predicting on Oct 12
1%
Rental Family
1% predicting on Nov 10
1%
Rental Family
1% predicting on Nov 9
2%
Rental Family
2% predicting on Nov 8
2%
Rental Family
2% predicting on Nov 7
2%
Rental Family
2% predicting on Nov 6
2%
Rental Family
2% predicting on Nov 5
2%
Rental Family
2% predicting on Nov 4
2%
Rental Family
2% predicting on Nov 3
2%
Rental Family
2% predicting on Nov 2
2%
Rental Family
2% predicting on Nov 1
2%
Rental Family
2% predicting on Oct 31
2%
Rental Family
2% predicting on Oct 30
2%
Rental Family
2% predicting on Oct 29
2%
Rental Family
2% predicting on Oct 28
2%
Rental Family
2% predicting on Oct 27
3%
Rental Family
3% predicting on Oct 26
3%
Rental Family
3% predicting on Oct 25
3%
Rental Family
3% predicting on Oct 24
3%
Rental Family
3% predicting on Oct 23
3%
Rental Family
3% predicting on Oct 22
3%
Rental Family
3% predicting on Oct 21
3%
Rental Family
3% predicting on Oct 20
3%
Rental Family
3% predicting on Oct 19
3%
Rental Family
3% predicting on Oct 18
3%
Rental Family
3% predicting on Oct 17
4%
Rental Family
4% predicting on Oct 16
4%
Rental Family
4% predicting on Oct 15
4%
Rental Family
4% predicting on Oct 14
4%
Rental Family
4% predicting on Oct 13
5%
Rental Family
5% predicting on Oct 12
1%
Is This Thing On?
1% predicting on Nov 10
1%
Is This Thing On?
1% predicting on Nov 9
1%
Is This Thing On?
1% predicting on Nov 8
1%
Is This Thing On?
1% predicting on Nov 7
1%
Is This Thing On?
1% predicting on Nov 6
1%
Is This Thing On?
1% predicting on Nov 5
1%
Is This Thing On?
1% predicting on Nov 4
1%
Is This Thing On?
1% predicting on Nov 3
1%
Is This Thing On?
1% predicting on Nov 2
1%
Is This Thing On?
1% predicting on Nov 1
1%
Is This Thing On?
1% predicting on Oct 31
1%
Is This Thing On?
1% predicting on Oct 30
1%
Is This Thing On?
1% predicting on Oct 29
1%
Is This Thing On?
1% predicting on Oct 28
2%
Is This Thing On?
2% predicting on Oct 27
2%
Is This Thing On?
2% predicting on Oct 26
2%
Is This Thing On?
2% predicting on Oct 25
2%
Is This Thing On?
2% predicting on Oct 24
2%
Is This Thing On?
2% predicting on Oct 23
2%
Is This Thing On?
2% predicting on Oct 22
2%
Is This Thing On?
2% predicting on Oct 21
2%
Is This Thing On?
2% predicting on Oct 20
2%
Is This Thing On?
2% predicting on Oct 19
2%
Is This Thing On?
2% predicting on Oct 18
2%
Is This Thing On?
2% predicting on Oct 17
2%
Is This Thing On?
2% predicting on Oct 16
3%
Is This Thing On?
3% predicting on Oct 15
3%
Is This Thing On?
3% predicting on Oct 14
3%
Is This Thing On?
3% predicting on Oct 13
3%
Is This Thing On?
3% predicting on Oct 12
41%16%14%10%8%5%4%3%1%1%

Dark horses

Scroll to analysis
Updated: Nov 10, 6:29 PM
The Smashing Machine
21

The Smashing Machine

A24

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
3%
change over 30 days
F1
22

F1

Warner Bros.

WIN:0%
NOM:2%
Blue Moon
23

Blue Moon

Sony Pictures Classics

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
1%
change over 30 days
Sorry, Baby
24

Sorry, Baby

A24

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
After the Hunt
25

After the Hunt

Amazon MGM Studios

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
1%
change over 30 days
Die My Love
26

Die My Love

Mubi

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
27

Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Netflix

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
The Life of Chuck
28

The Life of Chuck

Neon

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
29

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

A24

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
The Voice of Hind Rajab
30

The Voice of Hind Rajab

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Mickey 17
31

Mickey 17

Warner Bros.

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Superman
32

Superman

Warner Bros.

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Ballad of a Small Player
33

Ballad of a Small Player

Netflix

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Song Sung Blue
34

Song Sung Blue

Focus Features

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Nuremberg
35

Nuremberg

Sony Pictures Classics

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Eddington
36

Eddington

A24

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
KPop Demon Hunters
37

KPop Demon Hunters

Netflix

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
28 Years Later
38

28 Years Later

Sony

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
The Rivals of Amziah King
39

The Rivals of Amziah King

Black Bear Pictures

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Kiss of the Spider Woman
40

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Lionsgate

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Anemone
41

Anemone

Focus Features

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
The Long Walk
42

The Long Walk

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Materialists
43

Materialists

A24

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Nouvelle Vague
44

Nouvelle Vague

Netflix

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
The History of Sound
45

The History of Sound

Mubi

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Sound of Falling
46

Sound of Falling

Mubi

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Caught Stealing
47

Caught Stealing

Sony

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Ella McCay
48

Ella McCay

20th Century Studios

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Highest 2 Lowest
49

Highest 2 Lowest

A24

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Splitsville
50

Splitsville

Neon

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
*Aggregated predictions from 5,323 users

Just one week into its theatrical release, 'One Battle After Another' has dramatically reshaped the awards landscape. Some are even declaring that the race is over, and for good reason.

This will likely be the single best reviewed film of 2025, boasting exceptional Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes scores. But the press aren't the only ones catching a fever. Paul Thomas Anderson's modern American epic is thrilling, funny, action-packed, and made with the multiplex audience in mind. The pacing is breathless and never lets up throughout the 2hr 45min runtime.

"It's time to Paul Thomas Anderson an Oscar" chatter is already deafening. Celebrating an auteur director has helped Best Picture winners like Anora and Oppenheimer in recent years.

Set against the backdrop of a revolutionary group battling their government as immigrant populations face mass detention, 'One Battle After Another' arrives at a politically charged moment. This gives voters a broader reason to award the film as ICE raids sweep cities like Los Angeles.

Ryan Coogler's 'Sinners' and Festival Favorites Maintain Strong Positions

Many users have shifted their number-one prediction from 'Sinners' to 'One Battle After Another'. But confidence in Ryan Coogler's genre-defying vampire film remains remarkably high for a nomination. This highly original, genre-bending, musical period drama took both audiences and the box office by storm when it premiered in April. Passion from critics and moviegoers hungry for thought-provoking, original cinema gives it staying power.

Chloe Zhao's 'Hamnet' emerged as the biggest success from the fall festival circuit, winning the People's Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festial, indicating strong support from audiences. The film explores the love and loss that inspired Shakespeare's 'Hamlet'. Holding a stellar 90 on Metacritic, 'Hamnet' proves it's not just an audience hit, but loved across the board for its portrait of grief and healing. Bring the tissues.

'Sentimental Value' continues to hold strong as it completes its festival run. Predicted to be an awards darling since its premiere at the Cannes Film Festival, this is the most likely international film to land a nomination next year. Excitement for writer/director Joachim Trier's filmmaking and support for the outstanding ensemble cast make this one hard to bet against.

Unseen Contenders 'Marty Supreme' and 'Wicked: For Good' Maintain Buzz

Josh Safdie's 'Marty Supreme', starring Timothée Chalamet, is holding impressively strong at 89% prediction despite no one having seen it yet. As A24's flagship awards contender this season, the trailer promises a highly entertaining, funny, sports-centered thrill ride that could appeal to both audiences and critics. The studio's track record and Chalamet's star power keep expectations elevated.

'Wicked: For Good' remains a safe bet following the stellar ten nominations its predecessor received during last year's awards season. Since both films were shot simultaneously, prognosticators see little reason to expect dramatically different results. The built-in fanbase and director Jon M. Chu's steady hand make it a reliable prediction for nomination consideration.

Neon Emerges as Major Player with Multiple Contenders

Following its Palme d'Or victory, 'It Was Just An Accident' has only gained momentum. Some prognosticators expressed skepticism that this simmering Iranian drama could be an awards play. But Neon is determined to make the world know director Jafar Panahi's name, a filmmaker who has made over a dozen films and been imprisoned for his craft by the Iranian government. The film's presence at TIFF and Telluride has increased confidence among users.

Just when it appeared Neon had its hands full with 'Sentimental Value' and 'It Was Just An Accident', 'No Other Choice' has lept into the race with an excellent reception at Venice and TIFF, where it won the International People's Choice Award. Park Chan-Wook is yet another filmmaker overdue for international recognition, and it might arrive with his latest dark comedy which examines the brutality of the job market in our capitalist landscape.

It might seem too good to be true that Neon could land three international films in Best Picture, and it would be astounding if they pulled it off. Let's have our fingers crossed.

Festival Reception Shifts Predictions for 'Bugonia' and 'Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere'

'Bugonia' and 'Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere', both widely considered solid contenders before the fall festivals, have seen user confidence waver. 'Hamnet' effectively took the spot as Focus Features' main awards horse as 'Bugonia' received mostly positive but somewhat mixed reactions.

'Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere' premiered to good-not-great reactions from press. Though confidence remains strong in the film's highly anticipated performances from Jeremy Allen White as Bruce Springsteen and Jeremy Strong as his manager. The acting potential may be enough to keep the film in consideration.