Award Expert

2026 Independent Spirit Awards Predictions: Best Breakthrough Performance

Aggregated predictions from 410 users

Updated: Nov 10, 4:30 PM
Jacobi Jupe
1

Jacobi Jupe

Hamnet

WIN:54%
NOM:81%
Tonatiuh
2

Tonatiuh

Kiss of the Spider Woman

WIN:11%
NOM:74%
Benjamin Pajak
3

Benjamin Pajak

The Life of Chuck

WIN:8%
NOM:65%
Eva Victor
4

Eva Victor

Sorry, Baby

WIN:10%
NOM:56%
Molly Belle Wright
5

Molly Belle Wright

Omaha

WIN:2%
NOM:64%
Kayo Martin
6

Kayo Martin

The Plague

WIN:4%
NOM:33%
Chase Infiniti
7

Chase Infiniti

One Battle After Another

WIN:5%
NOM:27%
Everett Blunck
8

Everett Blunck

The Plague

WIN:2%
NOM:18%
Nina Yeh
9

Nina Yeh

Left-Handed Girl

WIN:0%
NOM:16%
Miles Caton
10

Miles Caton

Sinners

WIN:1%
NOM:15%
Sebiye Behtiyar
11

Sebiye Behtiyar

Preparation for the Next Life

WIN:1%
NOM:7%
Tom Blyth
12

Tom Blyth

Plainclothes

WIN:0%
NOM:4%
Mia Threapleton
13

Mia Threapleton

The Phoenician Scheme

WIN:0%
NOM:3%
Barbie Ferreira
14

Barbie Ferreira

Bob Trevino Likes It

WIN:0%
NOM:3%
Thomasin McKenzie
15

Thomasin McKenzie

The Testament of Ann Lee

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Blu Hunt
16

Blu Hunt

Lockjaw

WIN:0%
NOM:2%
Cary Christopher
17

Cary Christopher

Weapons

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Aidan Delbis
18

Aidan Delbis

Bugonia

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Mari Yamamoto
19

Mari Yamamoto

Rental Family

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
A$AP Rocky
20

A$AP Rocky

Highest 2 Lowest

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Tabatha Zimiga
21

Tabatha Zimiga

East of Wall

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Angelina LookingGlass
22

Angelina LookingGlass

The Rivals of Amziah King

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Indy
23

Indy

Good Boy

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Mélissa Boros
24

Mélissa Boros

Alpha

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Han Gi-chan
25

Han Gi-chan

The Wedding Banquet

WIN:0%
NOM:0%