Award Expert

2026 Independent Spirit Awards Predictions: Best Breakthrough Performance

Aggregated predictions from 516 users

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Updated: Dec 26, 8:31 AM
Kayo Martin
1

Kayo Martin

The Plague

WIN:86%
86%
change over 30 days
Tabatha Zimiga
2

Tabatha Zimiga

East of Wall

WIN:10%
10%
change over 30 days
SZA
3

SZA

One of Them Days

WIN:3%
Misha Osherovich
4

Misha Osherovich

She's the He!

WIN:1%
Liz Larsen
5

Liz Larsen

The Baltimorons

WIN:0%

Percentage Predicting over time

Kayo Martin (The Plague)
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
SZA (One of Them Days)
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Nov 27Nov 30Dec 3Dec 6Dec 9Dec 13Dec 16Dec 19Dec 22Dec 2686%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
86% predicting on Dec 26
86%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
86% predicting on Dec 25
86%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
86% predicting on Dec 24
86%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
86% predicting on Dec 23
86%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
86% predicting on Dec 22
86%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
86% predicting on Dec 21
86%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
86% predicting on Dec 20
87%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
87% predicting on Dec 19
87%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
87% predicting on Dec 18
87%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
87% predicting on Dec 17
87%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
87% predicting on Dec 16
87%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
87% predicting on Dec 15
87%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
87% predicting on Dec 14
88%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
88% predicting on Dec 13
88%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
88% predicting on Dec 12
88%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
88% predicting on Dec 11
88%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
88% predicting on Dec 10
89%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
89% predicting on Dec 9
87%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
87% predicting on Dec 8
85%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
85% predicting on Dec 7
78%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
78% predicting on Dec 6
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 5
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 4
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 3
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 2
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 1
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 30
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 29
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 28
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 27
10%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
10% predicting on Dec 26
10%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
10% predicting on Dec 25
10%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
10% predicting on Dec 24
10%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
10% predicting on Dec 23
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 22
10%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
10% predicting on Dec 21
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 20
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 19
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 18
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 17
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 16
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 15
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 14
12%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
12% predicting on Dec 13
12%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
12% predicting on Dec 12
12%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
12% predicting on Dec 11
12%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
12% predicting on Dec 10
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 9
13%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
13% predicting on Dec 8
15%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
15% predicting on Dec 7
22%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
22% predicting on Dec 6
1%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
1% predicting on Dec 5
1%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
1% predicting on Dec 4
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Dec 3
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Dec 2
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Dec 1
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 30
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 29
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 28
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 27
3%
SZA (One of Them Days)
3% predicting on Dec 26
3%
SZA (One of Them Days)
3% predicting on Dec 25
3%
SZA (One of Them Days)
3% predicting on Dec 24
3%
SZA (One of Them Days)
3% predicting on Dec 23
3%
SZA (One of Them Days)
3% predicting on Dec 22
3%
SZA (One of Them Days)
3% predicting on Dec 21
2%
SZA (One of Them Days)
2% predicting on Dec 20
2%
SZA (One of Them Days)
2% predicting on Dec 19
2%
SZA (One of Them Days)
2% predicting on Dec 18
1%
SZA (One of Them Days)
1% predicting on Dec 17
1%
SZA (One of Them Days)
1% predicting on Dec 16
1%
SZA (One of Them Days)
1% predicting on Dec 15
1%
SZA (One of Them Days)
1% predicting on Dec 14
1%
SZA (One of Them Days)
1% predicting on Dec 13
0%
SZA (One of Them Days)
0% predicting on Dec 12
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 26
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 25
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 24
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 23
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 22
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 21
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 20
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 19
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 18
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 17
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 16
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 15
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 14
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 13
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 12
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 26
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 25
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 24
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 23
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 22
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 21
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 20
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 19
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 18
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 17
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 16
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 15
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 14
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 13
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 12
86%10%3%0%0%