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Breakthrough Performance
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First Screenplay
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Breakthrough Performance
First
Feature
Director
Lead Performance
Supporting Performance
Screenplay
First Screenplay
International
Documentary
Cinematography
Editing
Breakthrough Performance
First
2026 Independent Spirit Awards Predictions: Best Breakthrough Performance
Aggregated predictions from
516
users
Share:
Updated: Dec 26, 8:31 AM
1
Kayo Martin
The Plague
WIN:
86
%
86
%
change over 30 days
1
Kayo Martin
The Plague
WIN:
86
%
86
%
change over 30 days
2
Tabatha Zimiga
East of Wall
WIN:
10
%
10
%
change over 30 days
2
Tabatha Zimiga
East of Wall
WIN:
10
%
10
%
change over 30 days
3
SZA
One of Them Days
WIN:
3
%
3
SZA
One of Them Days
WIN:
3
%
4
Misha Osherovich
She's the He!
WIN:
1
%
4
Misha Osherovich
She's the He!
WIN:
1
%
5
Liz Larsen
The Baltimorons
WIN:
0
%
5
Liz Larsen
The Baltimorons
WIN:
0
%
Percentage Predicting over time
30 days
60 days
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
SZA (One of Them Days)
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Nov 27
Nov 30
Dec 3
Dec 6
Dec 9
Dec 13
Dec 16
Dec 19
Dec 22
Dec 26
86%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
86% predicting on Dec 26
86%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
86% predicting on Dec 25
86%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
86% predicting on Dec 24
86%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
86% predicting on Dec 23
86%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
86% predicting on Dec 22
86%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
86% predicting on Dec 21
86%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
86% predicting on Dec 20
87%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
87% predicting on Dec 19
87%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
87% predicting on Dec 18
87%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
87% predicting on Dec 17
87%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
87% predicting on Dec 16
87%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
87% predicting on Dec 15
87%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
87% predicting on Dec 14
88%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
88% predicting on Dec 13
88%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
88% predicting on Dec 12
88%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
88% predicting on Dec 11
88%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
88% predicting on Dec 10
89%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
89% predicting on Dec 9
87%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
87% predicting on Dec 8
85%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
85% predicting on Dec 7
78%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
78% predicting on Dec 6
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 5
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 4
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 3
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 2
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 1
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 30
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 29
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 28
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 27
10%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
10% predicting on Dec 26
10%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
10% predicting on Dec 25
10%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
10% predicting on Dec 24
10%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
10% predicting on Dec 23
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 22
10%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
10% predicting on Dec 21
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 20
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 19
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 18
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 17
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 16
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 15
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 14
12%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
12% predicting on Dec 13
12%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
12% predicting on Dec 12
12%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
12% predicting on Dec 11
12%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
12% predicting on Dec 10
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 9
13%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
13% predicting on Dec 8
15%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
15% predicting on Dec 7
22%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
22% predicting on Dec 6
1%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
1% predicting on Dec 5
1%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
1% predicting on Dec 4
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Dec 3
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Dec 2
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Dec 1
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 30
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 29
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 28
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 27
3%
SZA (One of Them Days)
3% predicting on Dec 26
3%
SZA (One of Them Days)
3% predicting on Dec 25
3%
SZA (One of Them Days)
3% predicting on Dec 24
3%
SZA (One of Them Days)
3% predicting on Dec 23
3%
SZA (One of Them Days)
3% predicting on Dec 22
3%
SZA (One of Them Days)
3% predicting on Dec 21
2%
SZA (One of Them Days)
2% predicting on Dec 20
2%
SZA (One of Them Days)
2% predicting on Dec 19
2%
SZA (One of Them Days)
2% predicting on Dec 18
1%
SZA (One of Them Days)
1% predicting on Dec 17
1%
SZA (One of Them Days)
1% predicting on Dec 16
1%
SZA (One of Them Days)
1% predicting on Dec 15
1%
SZA (One of Them Days)
1% predicting on Dec 14
1%
SZA (One of Them Days)
1% predicting on Dec 13
0%
SZA (One of Them Days)
0% predicting on Dec 12
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 26
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 25
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 24
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 23
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 22
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 21
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 20
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 19
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 18
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 17
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 16
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 15
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 14
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 13
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 12
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 26
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 25
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 24
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 23
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 22
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 21
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 20
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 19
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 18
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 17
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 16
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 15
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 14
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 13
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 12
86%
10%
3%
0%
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
SZA (One of Them Days)
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Oct 28
Nov 3
Nov 10
Nov 16
Nov 23
Nov 29
Dec 6
Dec 12
Dec 19
Dec 26
86%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
86% predicting on Dec 26
86%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
86% predicting on Dec 25
86%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
86% predicting on Dec 24
86%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
86% predicting on Dec 23
86%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
86% predicting on Dec 22
86%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
86% predicting on Dec 21
86%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
86% predicting on Dec 20
87%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
87% predicting on Dec 19
87%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
87% predicting on Dec 18
87%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
87% predicting on Dec 17
87%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
87% predicting on Dec 16
87%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
87% predicting on Dec 15
87%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
87% predicting on Dec 14
88%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
88% predicting on Dec 13
88%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
88% predicting on Dec 12
88%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
88% predicting on Dec 11
88%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
88% predicting on Dec 10
89%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
89% predicting on Dec 9
87%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
87% predicting on Dec 8
85%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
85% predicting on Dec 7
78%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
78% predicting on Dec 6
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 5
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 4
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 3
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 2
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 1
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 30
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 29
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 28
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 27
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 26
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 25
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 24
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 23
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 22
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 21
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 20
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 19
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 18
0%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 17
4%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
4% predicting on Nov 16
4%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
4% predicting on Nov 15
4%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
4% predicting on Nov 14
4%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
4% predicting on Nov 13
4%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
4% predicting on Nov 12
4%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
4% predicting on Nov 11
4%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
4% predicting on Nov 10
5%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
5% predicting on Nov 9
5%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
5% predicting on Nov 8
5%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
5% predicting on Nov 7
5%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
5% predicting on Nov 6
5%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
5% predicting on Nov 5
5%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
5% predicting on Nov 4
5%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
5% predicting on Nov 3
6%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
6% predicting on Nov 2
6%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
6% predicting on Nov 1
6%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
6% predicting on Oct 31
6%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
6% predicting on Oct 30
6%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
6% predicting on Oct 29
6%
Kayo Martin (The Plague)
6% predicting on Oct 28
10%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
10% predicting on Dec 26
10%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
10% predicting on Dec 25
10%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
10% predicting on Dec 24
10%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
10% predicting on Dec 23
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 22
10%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
10% predicting on Dec 21
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 20
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 19
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 18
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 17
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 16
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 15
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 14
12%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
12% predicting on Dec 13
12%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
12% predicting on Dec 12
12%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
12% predicting on Dec 11
12%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
12% predicting on Dec 10
11%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
11% predicting on Dec 9
13%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
13% predicting on Dec 8
15%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
15% predicting on Dec 7
22%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
22% predicting on Dec 6
1%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
1% predicting on Dec 5
1%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
1% predicting on Dec 4
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Dec 3
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Dec 2
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Dec 1
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 30
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 29
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 28
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 27
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 26
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 25
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 24
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 23
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 22
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 21
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 20
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 19
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 18
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 17
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 16
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 15
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 14
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 13
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 12
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 11
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 10
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 9
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 8
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 7
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 6
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 5
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 4
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 3
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 2
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Nov 1
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Oct 31
0%
Tabatha Zimiga (East of Wall)
0% predicting on Oct 30
3%
SZA (One of Them Days)
3% predicting on Dec 26
3%
SZA (One of Them Days)
3% predicting on Dec 25
3%
SZA (One of Them Days)
3% predicting on Dec 24
3%
SZA (One of Them Days)
3% predicting on Dec 23
3%
SZA (One of Them Days)
3% predicting on Dec 22
3%
SZA (One of Them Days)
3% predicting on Dec 21
2%
SZA (One of Them Days)
2% predicting on Dec 20
2%
SZA (One of Them Days)
2% predicting on Dec 19
2%
SZA (One of Them Days)
2% predicting on Dec 18
1%
SZA (One of Them Days)
1% predicting on Dec 17
1%
SZA (One of Them Days)
1% predicting on Dec 16
1%
SZA (One of Them Days)
1% predicting on Dec 15
1%
SZA (One of Them Days)
1% predicting on Dec 14
1%
SZA (One of Them Days)
1% predicting on Dec 13
0%
SZA (One of Them Days)
0% predicting on Dec 12
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 26
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 25
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 24
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 23
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 22
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 21
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 20
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 19
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 18
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 17
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 16
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 15
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 14
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 13
0%
Misha Osherovich (She's the He!)
0% predicting on Dec 12
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 26
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 25
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 24
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 23
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 22
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 21
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 20
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 19
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 18
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 17
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 16
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 15
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 14
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 13
0%
Liz Larsen (The Baltimorons)
0% predicting on Dec 12
86%
10%
3%
0%
0%