Award Expert

2026 Independent Spirit Awards Predictions: Best First Feature

Aggregated predictions from 471 users

Share:
Updated: Dec 26, 8:31 AM
Lurker
1

Lurker

Alex Russell

WIN:89%
89%
change over 30 days
East of Wall
2

East of Wall

Kate Beecroft

WIN:4%
4%
change over 30 days
Blue Sun Palace
3

Blue Sun Palace

Constance Tsang

WIN:5%
One of Them Days
4

One of Them Days

Lawrence Lamont

WIN:2%
Dust Bunny
5

Dust Bunny

Bryan Fuller

WIN:0%

Percentage Predicting over time

Lurker
East of Wall
Blue Sun Palace
One of Them Days
Dust Bunny
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Nov 27Nov 30Dec 3Dec 6Dec 9Dec 13Dec 16Dec 19Dec 22Dec 2688%
Lurker
88% predicting on Dec 26
88%
Lurker
88% predicting on Dec 25
88%
Lurker
88% predicting on Dec 24
88%
Lurker
88% predicting on Dec 23
89%
Lurker
89% predicting on Dec 22
88%
Lurker
88% predicting on Dec 21
89%
Lurker
89% predicting on Dec 20
89%
Lurker
89% predicting on Dec 19
89%
Lurker
89% predicting on Dec 18
88%
Lurker
88% predicting on Dec 17
88%
Lurker
88% predicting on Dec 16
88%
Lurker
88% predicting on Dec 15
88%
Lurker
88% predicting on Dec 14
88%
Lurker
88% predicting on Dec 13
88%
Lurker
88% predicting on Dec 12
88%
Lurker
88% predicting on Dec 11
88%
Lurker
88% predicting on Dec 10
88%
Lurker
88% predicting on Dec 9
88%
Lurker
88% predicting on Dec 8
88%
Lurker
88% predicting on Dec 7
81%
Lurker
81% predicting on Dec 6
0%
Lurker
0% predicting on Dec 5
0%
Lurker
0% predicting on Dec 4
0%
Lurker
0% predicting on Dec 3
0%
Lurker
0% predicting on Dec 2
0%
Lurker
0% predicting on Dec 1
0%
Lurker
0% predicting on Nov 30
0%
Lurker
0% predicting on Nov 29
0%
Lurker
0% predicting on Nov 28
0%
Lurker
0% predicting on Nov 27
5%
East of Wall
5% predicting on Dec 26
5%
East of Wall
5% predicting on Dec 25
5%
East of Wall
5% predicting on Dec 24
5%
East of Wall
5% predicting on Dec 23
4%
East of Wall
4% predicting on Dec 22
4%
East of Wall
4% predicting on Dec 21
4%
East of Wall
4% predicting on Dec 20
5%
East of Wall
5% predicting on Dec 19
5%
East of Wall
5% predicting on Dec 18
5%
East of Wall
5% predicting on Dec 17
5%
East of Wall
5% predicting on Dec 16
5%
East of Wall
5% predicting on Dec 15
5%
East of Wall
5% predicting on Dec 14
5%
East of Wall
5% predicting on Dec 13
5%
East of Wall
5% predicting on Dec 12
6%
East of Wall
6% predicting on Dec 11
6%
East of Wall
6% predicting on Dec 10
6%
East of Wall
6% predicting on Dec 9
6%
East of Wall
6% predicting on Dec 8
6%
East of Wall
6% predicting on Dec 7
14%
East of Wall
14% predicting on Dec 6
0%
East of Wall
0% predicting on Dec 5
0%
East of Wall
0% predicting on Dec 4
0%
East of Wall
0% predicting on Dec 3
0%
East of Wall
0% predicting on Dec 2
0%
East of Wall
0% predicting on Dec 1
0%
East of Wall
0% predicting on Nov 30
0%
East of Wall
0% predicting on Nov 29
0%
East of Wall
0% predicting on Nov 28
0%
East of Wall
0% predicting on Nov 27
5%
Blue Sun Palace
5% predicting on Dec 26
5%
Blue Sun Palace
5% predicting on Dec 25
5%
Blue Sun Palace
5% predicting on Dec 24
5%
Blue Sun Palace
5% predicting on Dec 23
5%
Blue Sun Palace
5% predicting on Dec 22
5%
Blue Sun Palace
5% predicting on Dec 21
5%
Blue Sun Palace
5% predicting on Dec 20
5%
Blue Sun Palace
5% predicting on Dec 19
5%
Blue Sun Palace
5% predicting on Dec 18
5%
Blue Sun Palace
5% predicting on Dec 17
6%
Blue Sun Palace
6% predicting on Dec 16
6%
Blue Sun Palace
6% predicting on Dec 15
6%
Blue Sun Palace
6% predicting on Dec 14
6%
Blue Sun Palace
6% predicting on Dec 13
6%
Blue Sun Palace
6% predicting on Dec 12
6%
Blue Sun Palace
6% predicting on Dec 11
6%
Blue Sun Palace
6% predicting on Dec 10
6%
Blue Sun Palace
6% predicting on Dec 9
6%
Blue Sun Palace
6% predicting on Dec 8
6%
Blue Sun Palace
6% predicting on Dec 7
4%
Blue Sun Palace
4% predicting on Dec 6
0%
Blue Sun Palace
0% predicting on Dec 5
0%
Blue Sun Palace
0% predicting on Dec 4
0%
Blue Sun Palace
0% predicting on Dec 3
2%
One of Them Days
2% predicting on Dec 26
2%
One of Them Days
2% predicting on Dec 25
2%
One of Them Days
2% predicting on Dec 24
2%
One of Them Days
2% predicting on Dec 23
2%
One of Them Days
2% predicting on Dec 22
1%
One of Them Days
1% predicting on Dec 21
1%
One of Them Days
1% predicting on Dec 20
1%
One of Them Days
1% predicting on Dec 19
1%
One of Them Days
1% predicting on Dec 18
1%
One of Them Days
1% predicting on Dec 17
1%
One of Them Days
1% predicting on Dec 16
0%
One of Them Days
0% predicting on Dec 15
0%
One of Them Days
0% predicting on Dec 14
0%
One of Them Days
0% predicting on Dec 13
0%
One of Them Days
0% predicting on Dec 12
0%
Dust Bunny
0% predicting on Dec 26
0%
Dust Bunny
0% predicting on Dec 25
0%
Dust Bunny
0% predicting on Dec 24
0%
Dust Bunny
0% predicting on Dec 23
0%
Dust Bunny
0% predicting on Dec 22
0%
Dust Bunny
0% predicting on Dec 21
0%
Dust Bunny
0% predicting on Dec 20
0%
Dust Bunny
0% predicting on Dec 19
0%
Dust Bunny
0% predicting on Dec 18
0%
Dust Bunny
0% predicting on Dec 17
0%
Dust Bunny
0% predicting on Dec 16
0%
Dust Bunny
0% predicting on Dec 15
0%
Dust Bunny
0% predicting on Dec 14
0%
Dust Bunny
0% predicting on Dec 13
0%
Dust Bunny
0% predicting on Dec 12
88%5%5%2%0%