Award Expert

2026 Independent Spirit Awards Predictions: Best First Feature

Aggregated predictions from 420 users

Updated: Nov 10, 4:30 PM
Sorry, Baby
1

Sorry, Baby

Eva Victor

WIN:85%
NOM:93%
The Plague
2

The Plague

Charlie Polinger

WIN:10%
NOM:74%
Urchin
3

Urchin

Harris Dickinson

WIN:1%
NOM:81%
Pillion
4

Pillion

Harry Lighton

WIN:1%
NOM:75%
My Father's Shadow
5

My Father's Shadow

Akinola Davies Jr.

WIN:0%
NOM:58%
Twinless
6

Twinless

James Sweeney

WIN:0%
NOM:36%
The Chronology of Water
7

The Chronology of Water

Kristen Stewart

WIN:1%
NOM:14%
Eleanor the Great
8

Eleanor the Great

Scarlett Johansson

WIN:1%
NOM:11%
Friendship
9

Friendship

Andrew DeYoung

WIN:0%
NOM:7%
Blue Heron
10

Blue Heron

Sophy Romvari

WIN:0%
NOM:4%
Plainclothes
11

Plainclothes

Carmen Emmi

WIN:0%
NOM:3%
The History of Sound
12

The History of Sound

Oliver Hermanus

WIN:0%
NOM:2%
Omaha
13

Omaha

Cole Webley

WIN:0%
NOM:2%
Lockjaw
14

Lockjaw

Sabrina Greco

WIN:0%
NOM:2%
Anemone
15

Anemone

Ronan Day-Lewis

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Eephus
16

Eephus

Carson Lund

WIN:0%
NOM:2%
Sound of Falling
17

Sound of Falling

Mascha Schilinski

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Lemonade Blessing
18

Lemonade Blessing

Chris Merola

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Preparation for the Next Life
19

Preparation for the Next Life

Bing Liu

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
The President's Cake
20

The President's Cake

Hasan Hadi

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
East of Wall
21

East of Wall

Kate Beecroft

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Obsession
22

Obsession

Curry Barker

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Lurker
23

Lurker

Alex Russell

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Love, Brooklyn
24

Love, Brooklyn

Rachael Abigail Holder

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Mad Bills to Pay (or Destiny, dile que no soy malo)
25

Mad Bills to Pay (or Destiny, dile que no soy malo)

Joel Alfonso Vargas

WIN:0%
NOM:0%