Award Expert

2026 Independent Spirit Awards Predictions: Best Director

Aggregated predictions from 534 users

Updated: Nov 8, 4:30 AM
The Testament of Ann Lee
1

The Testament of Ann Lee

Mona Fastvold

WIN:44%
NOM:81%
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
2

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

Mary Bronstein

WIN:19%
NOM:89%
It Was Just an Accident
3

It Was Just an Accident

Jafar Panahi

WIN:12%
NOM:71%
Train Dreams
4

Train Dreams

Clint Bentley

WIN:4%
NOM:67%
Die My Love
5

Die My Love

Lynne Ramsay

WIN:4%
NOM:58%
Sorry, Baby
6

Sorry, Baby

Eva Victor

WIN:5%
NOM:46%
Sentimental Value
7

Sentimental Value

Joachim Trier

WIN:2%
NOM:25%
Hamnet
8

Hamnet

Chloé Zhao

WIN:6%
NOM:15%
The Mastermind
9

The Mastermind

Kelly Reichardt

WIN:0%
NOM:12%
Splitsville
10

Splitsville

Michael Angelo Covino

WIN:1%
NOM:5%
No Other Choice
11

No Other Choice

Park Chan-wook

WIN:1%
NOM:4%
The Secret Agent
12

The Secret Agent

Kleber Mendonça Filho

WIN:1%
NOM:3%
Blue Moon
13

Blue Moon

Richard Linklater

WIN:0%
NOM:2%
The Plague
14

The Plague

Charlie Polinger

WIN:0%
NOM:3%
Twinless
15

Twinless

James Sweeney

WIN:0%
NOM:2%
The Life of Chuck
16

The Life of Chuck

Mike Flanagan

WIN:0%
NOM:2%
Sound of Falling
17

Sound of Falling

Mascha Schilinski

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
On Becoming a Guinea Fowl
18

On Becoming a Guinea Fowl

Rungano Nyoni

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
The Smashing Machine
19

The Smashing Machine

Benny Safdie

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Omaha
20

Omaha

Cole Webley

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
The Voice of Hind Rajab
21

The Voice of Hind Rajab

Kaouther Ben Hania

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Eddington
22

Eddington

Ari Aster

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Kiss of the Spider Woman
23

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Bill Condon

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
In the Hand of Dante
24

In the Hand of Dante

Julian Schnabel

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
The Mysterious Gaze of the Flamingo
25

The Mysterious Gaze of the Flamingo

Diego Céspedes

WIN:0%
NOM:0%