Award Expert

2026 Independent Spirit Awards Predictions: Best Documentary

Aggregated predictions from 701 users

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Updated: Dec 26, 12:31 PM
The Perfect Neighbor
1

The Perfect Neighbor

WIN:91%
5%
change over 30 days
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
2

My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow

WIN:7%
7%
change over 30 days
Come See Me in the Good Light
3

Come See Me in the Good Light

WIN:1%
1%
change over 30 days
The Tale of Silyan
4

The Tale of Silyan

WIN:0%

Percentage Predicting over time

The Perfect Neighbor
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
Come See Me in the Good Light
The Tale of Silyan
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Nov 27Nov 30Dec 3Dec 6Dec 9Dec 13Dec 16Dec 19Dec 22Dec 2691%
The Perfect Neighbor
91% predicting on Dec 26
91%
The Perfect Neighbor
91% predicting on Dec 25
91%
The Perfect Neighbor
91% predicting on Dec 24
91%
The Perfect Neighbor
91% predicting on Dec 23
92%
The Perfect Neighbor
92% predicting on Dec 22
92%
The Perfect Neighbor
92% predicting on Dec 21
92%
The Perfect Neighbor
92% predicting on Dec 20
92%
The Perfect Neighbor
92% predicting on Dec 19
92%
The Perfect Neighbor
92% predicting on Dec 18
93%
The Perfect Neighbor
93% predicting on Dec 17
93%
The Perfect Neighbor
93% predicting on Dec 16
92%
The Perfect Neighbor
92% predicting on Dec 15
93%
The Perfect Neighbor
93% predicting on Dec 14
93%
The Perfect Neighbor
93% predicting on Dec 13
93%
The Perfect Neighbor
93% predicting on Dec 12
93%
The Perfect Neighbor
93% predicting on Dec 11
93%
The Perfect Neighbor
93% predicting on Dec 10
93%
The Perfect Neighbor
93% predicting on Dec 9
94%
The Perfect Neighbor
94% predicting on Dec 8
94%
The Perfect Neighbor
94% predicting on Dec 7
95%
The Perfect Neighbor
95% predicting on Dec 6
84%
The Perfect Neighbor
84% predicting on Dec 5
83%
The Perfect Neighbor
83% predicting on Dec 4
83%
The Perfect Neighbor
83% predicting on Dec 3
83%
The Perfect Neighbor
83% predicting on Dec 2
84%
The Perfect Neighbor
84% predicting on Dec 1
86%
The Perfect Neighbor
86% predicting on Nov 30
86%
The Perfect Neighbor
86% predicting on Nov 29
86%
The Perfect Neighbor
86% predicting on Nov 28
86%
The Perfect Neighbor
86% predicting on Nov 27
7%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
7% predicting on Dec 26
7%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
7% predicting on Dec 25
7%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
7% predicting on Dec 24
7%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
7% predicting on Dec 23
7%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
7% predicting on Dec 22
7%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
7% predicting on Dec 21
6%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
6% predicting on Dec 20
6%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
6% predicting on Dec 19
6%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
6% predicting on Dec 18
6%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
6% predicting on Dec 17
6%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
6% predicting on Dec 16
6%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
6% predicting on Dec 15
6%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
6% predicting on Dec 14
6%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
6% predicting on Dec 13
6%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
6% predicting on Dec 12
6%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
6% predicting on Dec 11
5%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
5% predicting on Dec 10
5%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
5% predicting on Dec 9
5%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
5% predicting on Dec 8
5%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
5% predicting on Dec 7
4%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
4% predicting on Dec 6
1%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
1% predicting on Dec 5
1%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
1% predicting on Dec 4
0%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
0% predicting on Dec 3
0%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
0% predicting on Dec 2
0%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
0% predicting on Dec 1
0%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
0% predicting on Nov 30
0%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
0% predicting on Nov 29
0%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
0% predicting on Nov 28
0%
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
0% predicting on Nov 27
1%
Come See Me in the Good Light
1% predicting on Dec 26
1%
Come See Me in the Good Light
1% predicting on Dec 25
1%
Come See Me in the Good Light
1% predicting on Dec 24
1%
Come See Me in the Good Light
1% predicting on Dec 23
1%
Come See Me in the Good Light
1% predicting on Dec 22
1%
Come See Me in the Good Light
1% predicting on Dec 21
1%
Come See Me in the Good Light
1% predicting on Dec 20
1%
Come See Me in the Good Light
1% predicting on Dec 19
1%
Come See Me in the Good Light
1% predicting on Dec 18
1%
Come See Me in the Good Light
1% predicting on Dec 17
1%
Come See Me in the Good Light
1% predicting on Dec 16
1%
Come See Me in the Good Light
1% predicting on Dec 15
1%
Come See Me in the Good Light
1% predicting on Dec 14
1%
Come See Me in the Good Light
1% predicting on Dec 13
1%
Come See Me in the Good Light
1% predicting on Dec 12
2%
Come See Me in the Good Light
2% predicting on Dec 11
2%
Come See Me in the Good Light
2% predicting on Dec 10
1%
Come See Me in the Good Light
1% predicting on Dec 9
1%
Come See Me in the Good Light
1% predicting on Dec 8
1%
Come See Me in the Good Light
1% predicting on Dec 7
2%
Come See Me in the Good Light
2% predicting on Dec 6
0%
Come See Me in the Good Light
0% predicting on Dec 5
0%
Come See Me in the Good Light
0% predicting on Dec 4
0%
Come See Me in the Good Light
0% predicting on Dec 3
0%
Come See Me in the Good Light
0% predicting on Dec 2
0%
Come See Me in the Good Light
0% predicting on Dec 1
0%
Come See Me in the Good Light
0% predicting on Nov 30
0%
Come See Me in the Good Light
0% predicting on Nov 29
0%
Come See Me in the Good Light
0% predicting on Nov 28
0%
Come See Me in the Good Light
0% predicting on Nov 27
0%
The Tale of Silyan
0% predicting on Dec 26
0%
The Tale of Silyan
0% predicting on Dec 25
0%
The Tale of Silyan
0% predicting on Dec 24
0%
The Tale of Silyan
0% predicting on Dec 23
0%
The Tale of Silyan
0% predicting on Dec 22
0%
The Tale of Silyan
0% predicting on Dec 21
0%
The Tale of Silyan
0% predicting on Dec 20
0%
The Tale of Silyan
0% predicting on Dec 19
0%
The Tale of Silyan
0% predicting on Dec 18
0%
The Tale of Silyan
0% predicting on Dec 17
0%
The Tale of Silyan
0% predicting on Dec 16
0%
The Tale of Silyan
0% predicting on Dec 15
0%
The Tale of Silyan
0% predicting on Dec 14
0%
The Tale of Silyan
0% predicting on Dec 13
0%
The Tale of Silyan
0% predicting on Dec 12
0%
The Tale of Silyan
0% predicting on Dec 11
0%
The Tale of Silyan
0% predicting on Dec 10
0%
The Tale of Silyan
0% predicting on Dec 9
0%
The Tale of Silyan
0% predicting on Dec 8
0%
The Tale of Silyan
0% predicting on Dec 7
0%
The Tale of Silyan
0% predicting on Dec 6
0%
The Tale of Silyan
0% predicting on Dec 5
0%
The Tale of Silyan
0% predicting on Dec 4
91%7%1%0%