Award Expert

2026 Independent Spirit Awards Predictions: Best First Screenplay

Aggregated predictions from 606 users

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Updated: Dec 25, 6:31 AM
Friendship
1

Friendship

Andrew DeYoung

WIN:85%
85%
change over 30 days
Lurker
2

Lurker

Alex Russell

WIN:12%
12%
change over 30 days
Blue Sun Palace
3

Blue Sun Palace

Constance Tsang

WIN:3%
3%
change over 30 days

Percentage Predicting over time

Friendship
Lurker
Blue Sun Palace
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Nov 26Nov 29Dec 2Dec 5Dec 8Dec 12Dec 15Dec 18Dec 21Dec 2585%
Friendship
85% predicting on Dec 25
85%
Friendship
85% predicting on Dec 24
85%
Friendship
85% predicting on Dec 23
85%
Friendship
85% predicting on Dec 22
85%
Friendship
85% predicting on Dec 21
86%
Friendship
86% predicting on Dec 20
85%
Friendship
85% predicting on Dec 19
86%
Friendship
86% predicting on Dec 18
86%
Friendship
86% predicting on Dec 17
86%
Friendship
86% predicting on Dec 16
86%
Friendship
86% predicting on Dec 15
86%
Friendship
86% predicting on Dec 14
87%
Friendship
87% predicting on Dec 13
87%
Friendship
87% predicting on Dec 12
87%
Friendship
87% predicting on Dec 11
87%
Friendship
87% predicting on Dec 10
87%
Friendship
87% predicting on Dec 9
89%
Friendship
89% predicting on Dec 8
89%
Friendship
89% predicting on Dec 7
94%
Friendship
94% predicting on Dec 6
1%
Friendship
1% predicting on Dec 5
1%
Friendship
1% predicting on Dec 4
1%
Friendship
1% predicting on Dec 3
0%
Friendship
0% predicting on Dec 2
0%
Friendship
0% predicting on Dec 1
1%
Friendship
1% predicting on Nov 30
1%
Friendship
1% predicting on Nov 29
0%
Friendship
0% predicting on Nov 28
0%
Friendship
0% predicting on Nov 27
0%
Friendship
0% predicting on Nov 26
12%
Lurker
12% predicting on Dec 25
12%
Lurker
12% predicting on Dec 24
12%
Lurker
12% predicting on Dec 23
12%
Lurker
12% predicting on Dec 22
11%
Lurker
11% predicting on Dec 21
11%
Lurker
11% predicting on Dec 20
11%
Lurker
11% predicting on Dec 19
11%
Lurker
11% predicting on Dec 18
11%
Lurker
11% predicting on Dec 17
11%
Lurker
11% predicting on Dec 16
11%
Lurker
11% predicting on Dec 15
11%
Lurker
11% predicting on Dec 14
10%
Lurker
10% predicting on Dec 13
10%
Lurker
10% predicting on Dec 12
10%
Lurker
10% predicting on Dec 11
10%
Lurker
10% predicting on Dec 10
10%
Lurker
10% predicting on Dec 9
8%
Lurker
8% predicting on Dec 8
8%
Lurker
8% predicting on Dec 7
4%
Lurker
4% predicting on Dec 6
0%
Lurker
0% predicting on Dec 5
0%
Lurker
0% predicting on Dec 4
0%
Lurker
0% predicting on Dec 3
0%
Lurker
0% predicting on Dec 2
0%
Lurker
0% predicting on Dec 1
0%
Lurker
0% predicting on Nov 30
0%
Lurker
0% predicting on Nov 29
0%
Lurker
0% predicting on Nov 28
0%
Lurker
0% predicting on Nov 27
0%
Lurker
0% predicting on Nov 26
3%
Blue Sun Palace
3% predicting on Dec 25
3%
Blue Sun Palace
3% predicting on Dec 24
3%
Blue Sun Palace
3% predicting on Dec 23
3%
Blue Sun Palace
3% predicting on Dec 22
3%
Blue Sun Palace
3% predicting on Dec 21
3%
Blue Sun Palace
3% predicting on Dec 20
3%
Blue Sun Palace
3% predicting on Dec 19
3%
Blue Sun Palace
3% predicting on Dec 18
3%
Blue Sun Palace
3% predicting on Dec 17
3%
Blue Sun Palace
3% predicting on Dec 16
3%
Blue Sun Palace
3% predicting on Dec 15
3%
Blue Sun Palace
3% predicting on Dec 14
3%
Blue Sun Palace
3% predicting on Dec 13
3%
Blue Sun Palace
3% predicting on Dec 12
3%
Blue Sun Palace
3% predicting on Dec 11
3%
Blue Sun Palace
3% predicting on Dec 10
3%
Blue Sun Palace
3% predicting on Dec 9
3%
Blue Sun Palace
3% predicting on Dec 8
3%
Blue Sun Palace
3% predicting on Dec 7
2%
Blue Sun Palace
2% predicting on Dec 6
0%
Blue Sun Palace
0% predicting on Dec 5
0%
Blue Sun Palace
0% predicting on Dec 4
0%
Blue Sun Palace
0% predicting on Dec 3
0%
Blue Sun Palace
0% predicting on Dec 2
0%
Blue Sun Palace
0% predicting on Dec 1
0%
Blue Sun Palace
0% predicting on Nov 30
0%
Blue Sun Palace
0% predicting on Nov 29
0%
Blue Sun Palace
0% predicting on Nov 28
0%
Blue Sun Palace
0% predicting on Nov 27
0%
Blue Sun Palace
0% predicting on Nov 26
85%12%3%