Award Expert

2026 Independent Spirit Awards Predictions: Best Lead Performance

Aggregated predictions from 910 users

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Updated: Dec 25, 2:01 AM
Rose Byrne
1

Rose Byrne

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

WIN:95%
16%
change over 30 days
Joel Edgerton
2

Joel Edgerton

Train Dreams

WIN:4%
3%
change over 30 days
Dylan O'Brien
3

Dylan O'Brien

Twinless

WIN:1%
Tessa Thompson
4

Tessa Thompson

Hedda

WIN:0%
Théodore Pellerin
5

Théodore Pellerin

Lurker

WIN:0%
Ben Whishaw
6

Ben Whishaw

Peter Hujar's Day

WIN:0%
Everett Blunck
7

Everett Blunck

The Plague

WIN:0%
Kathleen Chalfant
8

Kathleen Chalfant

Familiar Touch

WIN:0%
Keke Palmer
9

Keke Palmer

One of Them Days

WIN:0%
Chang Chen
10

Chang Chen

Lucky Lu

WIN:0%

Percentage Predicting over time

Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
Keke Palmer (One of Them Days)
Chang Chen (Lucky Lu)
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Nov 26Nov 29Dec 2Dec 5Dec 8Dec 12Dec 15Dec 18Dec 21Dec 2595%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
95% predicting on Dec 25
95%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
95% predicting on Dec 24
95%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
95% predicting on Dec 23
95%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
95% predicting on Dec 22
95%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
95% predicting on Dec 21
95%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
95% predicting on Dec 20
95%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
95% predicting on Dec 19
95%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
95% predicting on Dec 18
95%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
95% predicting on Dec 17
95%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
95% predicting on Dec 16
95%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
95% predicting on Dec 15
95%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
95% predicting on Dec 14
95%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
95% predicting on Dec 13
95%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
95% predicting on Dec 12
95%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
95% predicting on Dec 11
95%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
95% predicting on Dec 10
95%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
95% predicting on Dec 9
96%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
96% predicting on Dec 8
96%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
96% predicting on Dec 7
96%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
96% predicting on Dec 6
79%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
79% predicting on Dec 5
78%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
78% predicting on Dec 4
78%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
78% predicting on Dec 3
78%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
78% predicting on Dec 2
77%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
77% predicting on Dec 1
77%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
77% predicting on Nov 30
78%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
78% predicting on Nov 29
78%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
78% predicting on Nov 28
78%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
78% predicting on Nov 27
79%
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
79% predicting on Nov 26
4%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
4% predicting on Dec 25
3%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
3% predicting on Dec 24
3%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
3% predicting on Dec 23
3%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
3% predicting on Dec 22
4%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
4% predicting on Dec 21
3%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
3% predicting on Dec 20
4%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
4% predicting on Dec 19
3%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
3% predicting on Dec 18
3%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
3% predicting on Dec 17
3%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
3% predicting on Dec 16
3%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
3% predicting on Dec 15
3%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
3% predicting on Dec 14
3%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
3% predicting on Dec 13
3%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
3% predicting on Dec 12
3%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
3% predicting on Dec 11
3%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
3% predicting on Dec 10
3%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
3% predicting on Dec 9
3%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
3% predicting on Dec 8
3%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
3% predicting on Dec 7
3%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
3% predicting on Dec 6
1%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
1% predicting on Dec 5
1%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
1% predicting on Dec 4
1%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
1% predicting on Dec 3
1%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
1% predicting on Dec 2
1%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
1% predicting on Dec 1
1%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
1% predicting on Nov 30
1%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
1% predicting on Nov 29
1%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
1% predicting on Nov 28
1%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
1% predicting on Nov 27
1%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
1% predicting on Nov 26
1%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
1% predicting on Dec 25
1%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
1% predicting on Dec 24
1%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
1% predicting on Dec 23
1%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
1% predicting on Dec 22
1%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
1% predicting on Dec 21
1%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
1% predicting on Dec 20
1%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
1% predicting on Dec 19
1%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
1% predicting on Dec 18
1%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
1% predicting on Dec 17
1%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
1% predicting on Dec 16
1%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
1% predicting on Dec 15
1%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
1% predicting on Dec 14
1%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
1% predicting on Dec 13
1%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
1% predicting on Dec 12
1%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
1% predicting on Dec 11
1%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
1% predicting on Dec 10
1%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
1% predicting on Dec 9
1%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
1% predicting on Dec 8
1%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
1% predicting on Dec 7
1%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
1% predicting on Dec 6
0%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
0% predicting on Dec 5
0%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
0% predicting on Dec 4
0%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
0% predicting on Dec 3
0%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
0% predicting on Dec 2
0%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
0% predicting on Dec 1
0%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
0% predicting on Nov 30
0%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
0% predicting on Nov 29
0%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
0% predicting on Nov 28
0%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
0% predicting on Nov 27
0%
Dylan O'Brien (Twinless)
0% predicting on Nov 26
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 25
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 24
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 23
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 22
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 21
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 20
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 19
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 18
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 17
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 16
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 15
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 14
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 13
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 12
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 11
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 10
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 9
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 8
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 7
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 6
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 5
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 4
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 3
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 2
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Dec 1
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Nov 30
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Nov 29
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Nov 28
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Nov 27
0%
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
0% predicting on Nov 26
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 25
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 24
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 23
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 22
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 21
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 20
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 19
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 18
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 17
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 16
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 15
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 14
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 13
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 12
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 11
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 10
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 9
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 8
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 7
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 6
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 5
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 4
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 3
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 2
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Dec 1
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Nov 30
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Nov 29
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Nov 28
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Nov 27
0%
Théodore Pellerin (Lurker)
0% predicting on Nov 26
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 25
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 24
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 23
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 22
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 21
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 20
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 19
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 18
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 17
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 16
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 15
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 14
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 13
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 12
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 11
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 10
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 9
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 8
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 7
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 6
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 5
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 4
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 3
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 2
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Dec 1
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Nov 30
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Nov 29
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Nov 28
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Nov 27
0%
Ben Whishaw (Peter Hujar's Day)
0% predicting on Nov 26
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 25
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 24
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 23
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 22
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 21
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 20
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 19
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 18
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 17
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 16
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 15
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 14
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 13
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 12
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 11
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 10
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 9
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 8
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 7
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 6
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 5
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 4
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 3
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 2
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Dec 1
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 30
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 29
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 28
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 27
0%
Everett Blunck (The Plague)
0% predicting on Nov 26
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 25
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 24
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 23
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 22
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 21
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 20
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 19
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 18
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 17
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 16
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 15
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 14
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 13
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 12
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 11
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 10
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 9
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 8
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 7
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 6
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 5
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 4
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 3
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 2
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Dec 1
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Nov 30
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Nov 29
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Nov 28
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Nov 27
0%
Kathleen Chalfant (Familiar Touch)
0% predicting on Nov 26
0%
Keke Palmer (One of Them Days)
0% predicting on Dec 25
0%
Keke Palmer (One of Them Days)
0% predicting on Dec 24
0%
Keke Palmer (One of Them Days)
0% predicting on Dec 23
0%
Keke Palmer (One of Them Days)
0% predicting on Dec 22
0%
Keke Palmer (One of Them Days)
0% predicting on Dec 21
0%
Keke Palmer (One of Them Days)
0% predicting on Dec 20
0%
Keke Palmer (One of Them Days)
0% predicting on Dec 19
0%
Keke Palmer (One of Them Days)
0% predicting on Dec 18
0%
Keke Palmer (One of Them Days)
0% predicting on Dec 17
0%
Keke Palmer (One of Them Days)
0% predicting on Dec 16
0%
Keke Palmer (One of Them Days)
0% predicting on Dec 15
0%
Keke Palmer (One of Them Days)
0% predicting on Dec 14
0%
Keke Palmer (One of Them Days)
0% predicting on Dec 13
0%
Keke Palmer (One of Them Days)
0% predicting on Dec 12
0%
Chang Chen (Lucky Lu)
0% predicting on Dec 25
0%
Chang Chen (Lucky Lu)
0% predicting on Dec 24
0%
Chang Chen (Lucky Lu)
0% predicting on Dec 23
0%
Chang Chen (Lucky Lu)
0% predicting on Dec 22
0%
Chang Chen (Lucky Lu)
0% predicting on Dec 21
0%
Chang Chen (Lucky Lu)
0% predicting on Dec 20
0%
Chang Chen (Lucky Lu)
0% predicting on Dec 19
0%
Chang Chen (Lucky Lu)
0% predicting on Dec 18
0%
Chang Chen (Lucky Lu)
0% predicting on Dec 17
0%
Chang Chen (Lucky Lu)
0% predicting on Dec 16
0%
Chang Chen (Lucky Lu)
0% predicting on Dec 15
0%
Chang Chen (Lucky Lu)
0% predicting on Dec 14
0%
Chang Chen (Lucky Lu)
0% predicting on Dec 13
0%
Chang Chen (Lucky Lu)
0% predicting on Dec 12
95%4%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%